Last week (May 1–7), explosions took place at Russian oil refineries which will force the aggressor to rebuild the logistics of their military campaign. At the same time, the Kremlin faces systemic challenges in conducting offensive operations, and is likely to shift priorities in favor of a defensive strategy, against the backdrop of a future Ukrainian counteroffensive.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian side is strengthening their positions in European integration: increasingly more countries are declaring their desire to see Ukraine in the Euro-Atlantic family. In addition, Ukraine continues to advise the process of punishing Russia for armed aggression and other international crimes.
Below, we talk about the key statements and developments of the war-struck week.
Russia needs to change the logistics but not because of the “drone strike on the Kremlin”
On May, 3, the Kremlin press service said that two Ukrainian UAVs “attempted to strike” at the residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. The report also said that Putin was not injured, there were no casualties or material damage. However, Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov did not wait long to threaten: “Moscow is considering a variety of options for responding to the Ukrainian attack on the Kremlin; the steps can only be thoughtful and conforming with the country's interests.”
Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, called for the “physical liquidation” of Vladimir Zelensky and his entourage. And the head of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Vyacheslav Volodin called the drone attack on the Kremlin a terrorist attack, and said that he would “demand the use of weapons that can stop and destroy the Kyiv terrorist regime.”
Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine was not involved in the attack on the Kremlin: “We are not attacking either Putin or Moscow, we are fighting on our territory, protecting our villages and cities.” The President of Ukraine also expressed his position that the Russian leader accused Ukraine of attempting to assassinate him because "Russia has no victories on the battlefield in the war in Ukraine that they themselves unleashed."
The next day, May 4, it became known that CIA Director, William Burns, held a closed briefing for US senators about the drone attack on the Kremlin. The chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Mark Warner, said, “There’s no indication yet that Ukraine is behind alleged attack on Kremlin.”
At the same time, the head of EU diplomacy Josep Borrell urged Russia not to use the alleged drone attack on the Kremlin as an excuse for further escalation of the war, and also called on the leadership of the Russian Federation to withdraw troops from Ukraine.
Subsequently, Russia slightly changed their tactics and blamed the USA of the attack on Kremlin. Thus, Dmitry Peskov said: “Kyiv is doing what they are told,” and “Moscow knows that Kyiv is dictated by Washington on the means and targets for the strikes.” State Duma deputy Leonid Slutsky warned that “along with Zelensky, the responsibility for the drone attack on the Kremlin should also be borne by its Western masters — US President Biden and the leaders of the countries that support the terrorist neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine.” The Russian Foreign Ministry stressed that “the silence of the collective West testifies to its connivance with the terrorist methods of the neo-Nazi and extremist regime in Kyiv.”
Official Washington rejected such unsubstantiated claims. In particular, the coordinator of strategic communications of the US National Security Council, John Kirby, called the Kremlin's accusations meaningless. It should also be noted that the Institute for the Study of War generally suggested that Russia could have staged an attack on the Kremlin in order to create an excuse for wider mobilization of society.
It is interesting that in Russia, as called for by Leonid Slutsky, security measures are being strengthened on all flanks. For example, many cities have imposed a ban on drones. In particular, in Moscow, UAVs can be used only by decision of state authorities. In St. Petersburg, the airspace for drones was closed until May 15, and in the Sverdlovsk and Omsk regions of the Russian Federation, similar decisions were approved for an indefinite time.
Despite the information noise, the drone attack on the Kremlin, which did not cause damage, is certainly not Russia’s main concern. On May 1, in the Bryansk region, following a track explosion, a train carrying fuel came off the rails. As a result, the enemy lost a diesel locomotive, four cars, and 12 tons of diesel fuel. The next day, another train was blown up in the same area, as a result of which the locomotive and freight cars fell off the rails.
There have also been several attacks on the oil refinery. Thus, on May 4, at night, a drone hit the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov region. That same night, in the Krasnodar Territory, the tank of the Ilsk Oil Refinery caught fire. It is also as a result of a drone strike. Later, according to media reports, the explosion and fire were repeated. Oil depots were burning in the Krasnodar region; there were targeted attacks on objects in the Crimea; and even the power line support in the Leningrad region was blown up.
UK intelligence is already saying that Russia would have to change the system of fuel supply due to regular strikes on storage depots in the border areas with Ukraine. These decisions will complicate logistics for the enemy who already suffers from subversive actions on the railways. And the Russian Federation is unlikely to be able to fully defend itself from those acts.
According to Mykhailo Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, such “incidents” on railways and critical enterprises result from “the growing managerial weakness of Russia, the loss of power control over the regions, the emergence of aggressive and paramilitary protest (guerrilla) groups, as well as the destruction of the sacredness of the Putin clan.”
We will add that it is not only the paradigms about Putin that are being destroyed. Every week, Ukraine destroys other Kremlin myths, such as about the uniqueness and insurmountability of the inventions of the Russian military industry. Thanks to the Patriot systems, the Ukrainian air defense took down the Kh-47 hypersonic missile. As Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov says, “With the support of our friends, the impossible becomes possible!”
In anticipation of a counterattack: Russia is changing priorities, Ukraine is strengthening
On the eve of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Russian army loses its offensive potential and moves to defense. U.S. and British intelligence officials say that this year Russia will not be able to conduct a significant offensive operation, regardless of the results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The key problems of the Russian army are the lack of ammunition and manpower, as well as logistics.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that a reasonable decision for the Russian Ministry of Defense would be to begin accumulating ammunition and stocks to respond to Ukrainian counteroffensive actions. That is why Prigozhin's hysterical statements about the withdrawal of “Wagnerites” from Bakhmut due to a shortage of ammunition may indicate a change of priorities: instead of attacking Bakhmut, the Russian command concentrates on defense.
And yet the Russians do not stop trying to capture Bakhmut, destroying the city with phosphorous ammunition. In other sections of the front, the Russian army has built large-scale defensive structures, which may indicate a fear of a major breakthrough. Last week, the occupiers even announced the evacuation of residents of 18 settlements of the Zaporizhzhia region — allegedly due to increased shelling from the Ukrainian side.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is intensively preparing for the de-occupation of its territories. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley believes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready for offensive action, but the Ukrainian troops “will have to do a lot of planning and coordination work.” At the same time, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stressed that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is being prepared for the coming weeks, and it is success on the battlefield that will pave the way for negotiations and a just peace.
In order to reduce the level of concern among Russians, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation actively informs about missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine. In parallel, the Kremlin is already looking for options for possible scenarios to justify the next success of the Ukrainian army. Moreover, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov suggested that the Russian Federation could declare the next “goodwill gesture” under the pretext of a man-made disaster on its territory.
The fact that the war fails to follow the Russian scenario is evidenced by the cancellation of the parades on May 9 in a number of settlements in Russia. British intelligence believes that drone strikes have increased the sense of threat among the Russian leadership due to the increasing vulnerability of the territory of the Russian Federation.
And it’s not for nothing, because Ukraine has already trained 10,000 UAV operators within the “Army of Drones” project. Eight brigades of the “Guard of the Offensive”, which Ukraine actively gathered for the de-occupation of its territories, have been fully formed. Six of them are ready to perform the tasks of the Defense Forces. The issue is being resolved with additional armored vehicles – 80 Leopard 1 tanks will be ready for deployment in Ukraine by June 1.
In addition, problems with the proper supply of ammunition for the Armed Forces are also gradually decreasing. Last week, in addition to the next package of military assistance from the United States, which included shells, the EU agreed on a joint purchase of ammunition for Ukraine — the countries will finance the purchase of 155 mm artillery shells for 1 billion euros.
Ukraine believes in the effectiveness of future offensive operations. Thus, at a joint press conference with the Prime Ministers of the Netherlands and Belgium, Volodymyr Zelensky said: “We are thinking about how to prepare for a counter-offensive, and we do not think that we may not be successful. It's not our way. We have one goal and we are aware of that.”
At the same time, Volodymyr Zelensky and Oleksiy Reznikov, in an interview with The Washington Post mentioned that the expectations of Ukrainian society and Western partners may be overestimated in connection with Ukraine's previous victories on the battlefield. They will consider the de-occupation of any Ukrainian territory a success, but ideally the counter-offensive should also cut the logistics chains of Russian troops.
Under such conditions, Russia will not be able to achieve its political goals through military methods. Therefore, General Mark Milley believes that sooner or later the Russian side will understand that the losses exceed the benefits, and this can be the beginning of negotiations.
Eurotour Zelensky: advocacy for NATO membership and travel to The Hague for Putin
EU and NATO member states continue to support Ukraine's European integration and Euro-Atlantic aspirations against the background of preparations for the NATO summit, which will be held on July 11–12 in Vilnius. It is expected that it can make important decisions on the prospects of Ukrainian membership in the Alliance.
Thus, at the end of April, Estonia, with the joint effort of Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, advocated providing Ukraine with clear prospects for joining the Alliance after the war and guarantees of security on the path to NATO.
At the same time, the head of the Italian government, Georgia Meloni, said that her country would help Ukraine to fulfill the criteria necessary for full membership in the EU as soon as possible, and accelerate the process of starting accession negotiations.
Subsequently, this was picked up by the countries of Northern Europe. On May 3, the leaders of Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland, Sweden and Ukraine issued a joint statement following the summit in Helsinki, where they supported Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic integration. It says that the Nordic countries reaffirm their commitment to NATO's “open door” policy and believe that “the future of Ukraine and its people is in the Euro-Atlantic family.”
In addition, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland and Sweden highlighted that they looked forward to discussing the security of Ukraine and its membership in the Alliance at the July NATO summit, which, as already noted, will be held in Vilnius in July 2023.
Volodymyr Zelensky also took part in the meeting. Following the conversation with the President of Finland, Sauli Niinisto, he said that Ukraine expects NATO to send clear signals in support of our country's membership in the Alliance. According to Zelensky, such a signal should be the provision of effective security guarantees by NATO. “While we are at war, we need security guarantees today, while we are not yet in NATO. But in any case, our goal is to have full membership in the Alliance,” the President emphasized.
Next, Volodymyr Zelensky went to the Netherlands, where he met with the head of the government of this country Mark Rutte, and Belgian Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo. As a result, the Netherlands and Belgium also supported the prospects of Ukraine's accession to the Alliance.
“Until Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, Belgium and the Netherlands remain committed to supporting Ukraine on its path to further Euro-Atlantic integration and to strengthening Ukraine's ability to defend itself against current Russian military aggression and any future threat,” the statement said.
In addition to joining NATO, during his visits to Finland and the Netherlands, the President of Ukraine advocated the need for increased military assistance from allies, including the transfer of F-16 fighters.
“It is time to make a positive decision for Ukraine regarding modern aircraft. There is no rational reason to postpone such decisions to train our pilots and strengthen the wings for Ukraine — this will mean accelerating the peace that we all want,” Zelensky said, while in the Dutch city of The Hague.
Another important issue of the visit of the President of Ukraine to the Netherlands was ensuring the inevitability of punishment for the crime of aggression and other international crimes (war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide) that the Russian army commits on the territory of Ukraine. Thus, Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine supports the idea of creating a special tribunal to prosecute the Russian leadership, in particular Vladimir Putin, for the crime of aggression against Ukraine.
This position of Ukraine is related to the fact that the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC) over the crime of aggression is limited to the States parties to the Rome Statute. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have ratified it. Therefore, the ICC Prosecutor's Office is authorized to investigate all categories of international crimes that have occurred on the territory of Ukraine since November 20, 2013, except for the crime of aggression.
Zelensky also met with the panel of the ICC in The Hague and noted that bringing to justice those responsible for war and other crimes is fundamental for Ukraine. “The only result we accept are the sentences for all Russian war criminals, including the highest leadership of the aggressor country," he said.
You may be reminded that on March 17, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin and the Commissioner of the President of the Russian Federation for the Rights of the Child, Maria Lvova-Belova. They are suspected of illegal deportation of children from the occupied territories of Ukraine to the Russian Federation. According to Ukrainian data, the number of illegally displaced children is at least 16.000.