Why Does the Undemocratic Nature of Elections Affect the (il)Legitimacy of Presidential Power in Russia?

October 2023 was rich in foreign policy events and geopolitical shifts. Lack of consensus in the USA about further support to Ukraine, election of a pro-Russian government in Slovakia, unbending pro-Kremlin policy in Hungary, and intensified hostilities in the Middle East may affect the agenda in the Russia-Ukraine war.

We explored 225 Telegram channels including news resources and the channels of official authorities sharing content for the temporarily Russia-controlled parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. We collected the total of 6,984 posts mentioning the coming pseudo elections. Based on the obtained data, we identified topics and narratives of propagandists about the pseudo elections, and estimated the frequency of mentioning political parties. We detected that Russians posted suspiciously similar texts to promote candidates in different regions.

Last week (September 18–24), partners announced about the military assistance to Ukraine worth several million USD. The nearest batch for Ukraine includes, among other things, additional air defense systems, tanks, armored vehicles, artillery shells, and, possibly, the long-range ATACMS missiles. New York hosted a high-level week of the 78th session of the UN General Assembly, when leaders of some countries supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity and condemned Russian aggression. Russia had not helped their ally Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan, enabling Baku for the successful military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. On the other hand, Georgia’s ruling party accused Ukraine of supporting forces willing to stage a coup in the country, and initiated impeachment of the country’s pro-European President. 

In recent years, Telegram has become one of the main platforms for the spread of Russian propaganda and disinformation – primarily due to the lack of censorship and weak content moderation. Although this service is popular mainly in Ukraine and the Russian Federation, it is also used in other countries. However, pro-Russian channels that broadcast narratives favorable to the Kremlin are waiting for foreigners in Telegram. Civil Network OPORA investigated pro-Russian Telegram channels that work for the Western audience and the connections between them.

Messaging service Telegram’s marketing strategy is to present itself as a platform for total freedom of speech in response to the moderation policies of other platforms like Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter. Telegram professes to consider content moderation as a philosophical question of ethics and morale, as if any interference has the exclusive function of “disciplining” users. However, this philosophical issue has quite tangible consequences in practice. For example, the findings of an independent impact assessment of Facebook on human rights in Myanmar showed(opens in a new tab) that under-moderation of content in Myanmar language contributed(opens in a new tab) to the act of genocide against the Rohingya Muslims.

This autumn, Russians plan to hold the so-called “elections” for 79 municipal associations and “legislative bodies” (occupation administrations) in parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and also the “by-elections” to the “state duma” in the occupied Crimea.

At the same time, Ukrainian troops continue to liberate the occupied territory and are on the verge of a breakthrough. The increasing number of explosions on the territory of Russia, the destruction of the strategic objects of the aggressor, and the landing of the Ukrainian military in the occupied Crimea indicate the inevitable failure of Putin's venture in Ukraine. Finally, more and more countries are agreeing to support the security guarantees of Ukraine and to join the exercises of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters.

However, the opponents of Ukraine are not interested in any explanations. The notorious Fox News journalist Tucker Carlson, referring to the mentioned interviews of Zelensky, concluded that the "main defender of democracy in the world" decided to "abolish democracy in Ukraine." Carlson's disinformation narrative about the “Zelensky dictatorship” and “cancellation of elections” was quickly picked up by other American figures, including US House of Representatives member Marjorie Taylor Green and a journalist Glen Greenwald. Civil Network OPORA investigated who else had joined the discreditation campaign in the American segment of Twitter and Facebook, and what key disinformation narratives about the Ukrainian elections are spreading in these social networks.

Last week (August 14–20), an important news was the decision of Denmark and the Netherlands to transfer 61 F-16 aircraft to Ukraine. Also, Ukrainian pilots have already begun testing on Swedish Gripens aircraft, which in the future will make it possible to get these 4th generation fighters.