Last week, a summit of CSTO member states took place. Following the event, one may conclude that russia failed to get the allies on board in the war on Ukraine.

The meeting also showed that the member countries do not have any shared vision for the organization's development which undermines its effectiveness.

Another important track from last week was the change of russian public position on prospective NATO membership for Sweden and France. Now, russia claims they do not see any problem about these countries joining the Alliance, although the threat of expansion was one of the reasons for the onset of the so called “special military operation” against Ukraine, not to mention the rf requirements to bring the Alliance back to the 1997 borders.

Ukrainian politicians highlighted the need to reinforce the sanctions against russia, such as to introduce the oil embargo. They discussed the possible consequences for global food security because Russia has blocked Ukrainian sea ports and grain exports.

Despite the statements of some EU politicians who might act in russian interests, Ukrainian side emphasized no alternatives for the country's course towards EU candidate country status.

Another important statement was that Ukraine was not ready to accept any compromise in the war with russia if they need to concede their sovereignty, territories, and citizens living therein.

The CSTO meeting: russia's failed attempt to find new allies for the war against Ukraine

On Monday, May 16, a summit took place of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the organization's establishment. It includes six countries: russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan.

During the summit, putin presented to the member countries his vision on the war on Ukraine and the “confrontation” with NATO. In addition, vladimir putin informed the meeting participants, off record, about the course of the full-scale invasion on Ukraine, or the “special military operation” as it is labeled in russia.

According to many analysts, during this part of the meeting, russia could ask other CSTO countries for military help in the war on Ukraine.

Analyzing the public speeches of the leaders of the member states, who, as we know, have a varying attitude to the russian military adventure, it can be concluded that russia failed to get the support from its "allies".

Moreover, it seems that the CSTO member states do not have a common vision of the purpose of the functioning of this organization. In their speeches, the leaders of the CSTO member states focused on issues relevant to these countries.

As for the war in Ukraine, it was not even putin who "was on fire" with this topic but the self-proclaimed leader of Belarus, Oleksandr Lukashenko, who was given the role of the main transmitter of russian propaganda. During his speech, Lukashenko tried in every possible way to justify the war against Ukraine – he actually called it the reaction of the russian federation to the aggressive actions of the West, who are going all lengths to keep the unipolar world.

“Today's meeting is taking place in a difficult time – a time when the world is changing: the unipolar system of the world order is irrevocably going into the past, but the collective West is waging a fierce struggle to keep its positions,” said the self-proclaimed president.

Lukashenko also accused NATO countries of clattering with weapons near Belarusian borders. "In all possible ways, including in the area of responsibility of our Organization: from the clatter of NATO weapons near our western borders to a full-scale hybrid war unleashed against us, primarily against russia and Belarus," said the dictator.

Lukashenka's mind is haunted by the NATO expansion to the east and increase of its combat capacity. He also shared the statement of russian propaganda that it is not russia that is fighting Ukraine but “the West is fighting russia.”

"At this moment, 19 European countries, in particular near our borders, in Poland, are undergoing large-scale exercise, the one we have not seen before, "DEFENDER-Europe 22". Who they are defending themselves from – guess yourself, ”Lukashenko said.

Interestingly enough, even in a report at the CSTO summit, Lukashenko managed to make a reference to his legendary phrase “and I will show you now where they wanted to attack belarus from…”.

“Our military interaction within the framework of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, Belarus' membership in the CSTO are the same stabilizers that have a certain sobering effect on hotheads on the other side of the border. This example suggests that, if this were not the case, I am afraid that the hot war would already be on the territory of Belarus as well,”the politician believes.

In addition, Lukashenko spread another russian tale about the "blossoming of Nazism" in Ukraine with the assistance of the "collective West" and about Ukraine being pumped with modern weapons.

We assume that after the summit Lukashenko's speech was properly appreciated in the kremlin, and the Belarusian dictator received a “candy bar” from the moscow regime.

Head of State of Kazakhstan, Qasym-Jomart Toqaev, was the next to speak at the summit. The politician said nothing about a "special military operation" or "aggressive actions of the collective West and NATO expansion". In his address, he focused on CSTO activities in the region.

“With the creation of the CSTO, a solid system of collective security was erected on the large expanse of Eurasia. Its main tasks are to strengthen peace and stability, international and regional security, protection of territorial integrity and sovereignty of the member states,”the President of Kazakhstan said.

In addition, the head of Kazakhstan noted that the CSTO should pay attention to countering international terrorism and extremism, illegal trafficking in drugs and weapons, as well as illegal migration. In particular, Toqaev noted that the above threats primarily come from Afghanistan.

“In this vein, we pay much attention to the developments in Afghanistan. The unstable situation in this country, as well as the unabated activity of armed groups in the territory of Afghanistan, continue to threaten the security and stability of our states. I believe that the CSTO should take into account all potential threats and pay even more attention to ensuring the security of the southern borders of Central Asia,”the politician said.

In the final part of his report, the politician noted: “In the near term, the development of the Organization's peacekeeping capacity is an undeniable priority. Work in this direction is actively under way.”

President of the Kyrgyz Republic, Sadyr Japarov, spoke in a very abstract way and noted that military and political tensions approached the borders of the CSTO countries. However, the politician did not specify what threats he meant and who they came from.

“The current international situation does not inspire optimism in terms of global security or the world economy. Threats to security and military and political tensions have come close to all the boundaries of the CSTO's area of responsibility,” the politician said.

The next address was delivered by the russian president, vladimir putin. His speech somewhat echoed the message of a self-proclaimed President Lukashenko.

Putin noted the important role of the CSTO in the region, recalled that last year the peacekeeping contingent helped to prevent a coup in Kazakhstan – in fact, the rf troops suppressed the protests caused by the increase in gas prices.

Next, the rf president told everyone the long-known propaganda tales about biolabs in Ukraine. He even went further and added that the Pentagon was creating a whole network of laboratories around the borders of the CSTO member states.

The russian president repeated the messages of russian propaganda about aggressive NATO and its expansion to the east, about the neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine and its encouragement by the "collective West".

President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, outlined the activities of the CSTO in general terms and dwelt on the situation in Afghanistan and the possible offensive of the Taliban movement, which poses security threats in the region, primarily to Tajikistan.

An interesting speech was made by Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, who, in fact, alluded that the CSTO did not perform the functions that it should perform. Key messages of the Armenian politician's speech:

  • First, there is no particular unity and common position among the CSTO member states.
  • Secondly, it is necessary to regulate the issues of interaction and mechanisms for responding to threats to CSTO members. As Pashinyan noted, last year, when Azerbaijan entered the territory of Armenia, the response of the CSTO members was not what Armenia expected.
  • Thirdly, Armenia is not entirely satisfied with the fact that the CSTO countries sell weapons to individual states, in particular to Azerbaijan, who then use them against Armenia.
Finland and Sweden: one step away from joining NATO

An equally important topic from last week was Finland's and Sweden's submission of official applications for NATO membership, although the countries have long declared a policy of neutrality.

In fact, this topic is quite painful for russia because one of the reasons voiced for the "special military operation" was to prevent the expansion of the Alliance to the east.

On the one hand, the rf failed to take Kyiv in three days, and on the other hand, NATO went for unscheduled expansion to the east as a result of russia's actions.

The two countries that had no intention of joining the Alliance before February, 24, are now one step away from joining it. This situation clearly smells like a military and diplomatic failure of russia.

However, russia would not be russia if it did not try to present its defeats as victories, or at least as a split.

Despite the threats, after Finland and Sweden decided to join the Alliance, the kremlin's rhetoric changed significantly. Now moscow claims that the accession of these countries to NATO is not a problem, and somehow they seem to have forgotten about the requirements for NATO to return to the borders of 1997.

The new russian position was voiced directly by putin at the above-mentioned summit of the CSTO countries. However, he said that the problem would be the deployment of NATO countries' military infrastructure on the territories of Finland and Sweden – such actions would force the russian federation to respond accordingly.

“As for enlargement, including through new members of the alliance, Finland and Sweden, I would like to inform you, dear colleagues, that russia has no problems with these states, there are no any problems. So in the sense of an immediate threat to  us, from enlargement at the expense of these countries, for russia the threat has not appeared, ”– said the russian president.

A similar message was voiced by the president's press secretary, dmitry peskov. However, he added more details. According to him, russia has no territorial claims to Finland and Sweden, so their accession to NATO does not pose a threat to the rf, unlike Ukraine.

Neither did the spokeswoman of the russian foreign ministry, maria zakharova, escape this topic. She actually repeated the position of the rf president but decided to intimidate Sweden and Finland with measures in response. As typical for russian diplomacy, she did not specify what exactly was meant, so to speak, "take it as you like."

“The russian federation will therefore take action in response, which content, including military and technical aspects, will in many ways be determined in the light of the specific conditions of Finland's and Sweden's membership in the North Atlantic Alliance,” zakharova said.

The case of Sweden and Finland is very valuable for Ukraine. It demonstrates that countries that did not have a Membership Action Plan (MAP) can join NATO if there is a political will to do so.

This message was confirmed in an interview with "European Truth" by the temporary US attorney in Ukraine, Christina Quinn. “As for the possibility of Finland joining without MAP, the Membership Action Plan has never been a legal requirement for joining NATO, and therefore Ukraine can also join an alliance without MAP,” Christina Quinn explained.

Implementation of sanctions, global food security, lack of alternatives to EU candidate status for Ukraine: what Ukrainian politicians talked about

Ukraine continues to seek support in the international arena.At the beginning of the week, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, in his address to the EU Foreign Ministers, highlighted not only the clear position of Ukraine but also the specific requirements for the countries of the European Union. Kuleba stressed the critical need for energy sanctions against russia, including the embargo on russian oil.

“We need an energy embargo, including an embargo on russian oil, gas and coal. Europe pays russia more than 600 million euros a day for oil and gas. Financial restrictions are needed: we further urge you to disconnect all russian and belarusian banks from SWIFT. The russian banking sector is very fragmented and has more than 300 banks, which allows russian exporters to bypass or try to bypass sanctions. Only a complete blockade of russian exports will force russia to end the war. Inflationary or recessionary effects for the world economy will be minimal and certainly less than it is feared," said the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

In addition, the diplomat called on the EU to support Ukraine with weapons, as well as to assure Ukraine of its European future, namely to grant our country the status of a candidate country for EU membership.

“Three factors can make a difference for the better. Economic – tough sanctions against rf. Military – supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine. Political – granting Ukraine the status of an EU candidate country,” believes Dmytro Kuleba.

Another key theme of the week was food security – because of russian aggression, a global food crisis is possible. Thus, Kuleba noted that its only reason is the russia's illegal blockade of Ukrainian seaports.

“The only reason for restrictions on Ukrainian food exports is russia's aggression against our state and its illegal blockade of Ukrainian seaports. With its criminal actions, russia is undermining global food security. But even in such difficult conditions, Ukraine makes every effort to fulfill its contractual obligations and supply food to foreign consumers, in particular using the EU infrastructure,” the Minister said.

This position is also shared by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksii Rieznikov. Last week, he stressed that the prolongation of the war causes not only the food crisis but also the migration crisis. The politician also said that according to many signs, russia is preparing to conduct a long-term military operation. The war is entering a protracted phase.

“The war is destroying the Ukrainian economy. The need for resources for reconstruction increases every day. The prolongation of the war causes the risk of a global food crisis, as well as another migration crisis, ” Reznikov believes.

Another important topic was the declaration of the no alternatives to Ukraine's aspirations for an EU candidate status.

Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Europe is lobbying for a certain alternative to obtaining EU candidate status for Ukraine. However, the President of Ukraine believes that such an option is not acceptable for Ukraine because it will be a compromise of the EU with the rf, which will not take into account the interests of Ukraine. In particular, Zelensky emphasized that, in his opinion, those who offer "alternatives" for Ukraine either consciously or unconsciously promote the interests of the rf.

“We don't need any opportunities or access to certain finance. This is important for Ukraine's economy but we do not need it as an alternative to the EU candidacy. We do not need these compromises because they will not be compromises with Ukraine. It will be another compromise of Europe with the rf. I am absolutely certain that this is the pressure and influence of russian officials, bureaucrats, and lobbyists, ”Zelensky declared.

Also, Ukrainian politicians once again emphasized that Ukraine is not ready to surrender its territories in the war with the rf. Mykhailo Podoliak reacted to the article in "The New York Times" where the editorial board suggested that Ukraine would most likely have to make territorial concessions to stop the wars. Referring to the publication, the politician noted that any concession to russia is not a path to peace but a war protracted for several years.

"Ukraine does not trade its sovereignty, territories and citizens living in them. It is a pity that we have to explain such simple things to such a respectable publication," said the adviser to the head of the President's Office.

Civil Network OPORA created an online tool "War Speeches" to track the official positions and a public discourse of the occupier state on the course of war against Ukraine and forecasting future aggressive plans of the rf. The monitoring focused on statements and speeches delivered by officials from the occupying state, as well as on official documents of government institutions. In addition to a detailed timeline of public positions presented on the website, we offer weekly analytical summaries of key changes in public rhetoric of the parties to the military confrontation.