Last week (May 22–28), the Russians were shocked that the war they started in Ukraine had spread to their territory. 

Russia denies the existence of Ukraine, continues to absorb Belarus through the alleged deployment of nuclear weapons there, and threatens Poland. 

Following another regular meeting in the Ramstein format, we learned that Denmark and the Netherlands would lead the process of training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 aircraft. The allies also announced $65 billion of military assistance to Ukraine. 

Below, find more about the key statements and developments of the war-struck week. 

Russia can't defend its own borders but Shoigu promises to respond “rapidly and extremely harshly”

On May 22, 2023, the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Svoboda Rossii Legion [lit. Freedom for Russia] announced the liberation of the settlements of Kozinka and Gora Podol in the Belgorod region. On the same day, the Legion's press service said that “the situation is difficult, the Legion and the RVC create a demilitarized zone on the border with the Russian Federation, from where they would not be able to shell Ukraine." They also added that the ultimate goal is “the liberation of all of Russia from Putin's dictatorship and the cessation of the criminal war.”

This news has shaken the information space of Russia. The Kremlin hastened to declare in the Belgorod region the counter-terrorist operation regime “in connection with the entry into the territory of the SRG.” They brought in several thousand fighters, including special forces, and dozens of pieces of machinery. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitriy Peskov,  said that “the sabotage group entered the territory of the Belgorod region in order to minimize the political impact from the loss of Artemivsk [Bakhmut] by the Ukrainian side.”

Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that “Ukraine is watching the developments in the Belgorod region with interest, and we are exploring the situation; however, it is not directly related to it. As you know, tanks are sold in any Russian military store, and underground guerrilla groups consist of Russia's citizens, after all.” The same position was voiced by the representative of the Chief Intelligence Department, Andriy Yusov. He underscored that Ukraine had nothing to do with the events in the Belgorod region, and that local anti-Putin forces are fighting there. Subsequently, Yusov emphasized that “the operation is carried out exclusively by citizens of Russia.”

The operation itself caused considerable panic in the region. Thus, in the evening of May 22, the governor of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said that most of the residents of the Graivoron district had left their settlements. On the night of May 22-23, it became known about the attack on the buildings of the FSB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Belgorod. Interestingly, according to the Chief Intelligence Department of Ukraine, on May 22, the Kremlin began to urgently evacuate the Belgorod-22 nuclear ammunition storage facility near Grayvoron.

The next day, on May 23, the Ministry of Defense of the terrorist state hastened to report about the alleged defeat of the RDK and the legion “Freedom for Russia” in the Belgorod region. The governor of the region announced the lifting of the counter-terrorist operation regime. In general, according to the Kremlin, “70 saboteurs” were killed but in fact, the “Freedom for Russia” Legion reported two dead only. Also, Russian volunteers who participated in the raid said that they used captured vehicles for the operation, and also emphasized that the Kremlin was lying about the “destroyed columns.” It must also be mentioned that that Chief Intelligence Department denied the supply of any ammunition to the “Russian rebels.”

It is interesting that, reacting to the events in Belgorod region, Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, said: “We will continue to respond promptly and extremely harshly to such actions of Ukrainian militants.” On May 25, representatives of the Russian Volunteer Corps said that they were back in the territory of the Russian Federation, and posted a video with the Russian Post office in the background: “We have entered Russia’s territory again, with battles or quietly. It doesn't matter anymore.” 

In general, according to Dmitry Peskov, these events are of deep concern: “This once again confirms that Ukrainian militants continue their activities against our country; it requires more effort from us.” Peskov also added that the SMO continues precisely in order “to prevent any such interventions in the future.”

It is also interesting to see that Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, actually accused official Washington of “pushing for a sabotage raid” on the Belgorod region, which “is designed to create a false impression among NATO curators of the Kyiv regime about some high combat capability of the Armed Forces.” However, allegedly “no one would be able to out-shadow the victory in Artemivsk [Bakhmut].”

The US State Department stressed that although “they do not encourage attacks outside the Ukrainian borders, Russia is the aggressor in the war and it is the Russian Federation that continues to attack civilians – it targets schools and hospitals, and civilian infrastructure.”

As you can see, Russia faces problems, and the Kremlin acknowledges it. Thus, the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Anna Malyar, has emphasized, for a reason, that after the developments in the Belgorod region, the Kremlin would face the issue of regrouping its forces. After all, “they actually threw all their forces on the Ukrainian fronts.”

The Institute for the Study of War notes that “the Russian information space reacted to the events of May 22 in the Belgorod region with the same panic, factionalism, and inconsistency that they tend to demonstrate when experiencing major information shocks.”

However, the British Ministry of Defense believes that the Kremlin would try to make use of the events in the Belgorod region and promote the narrative that Russia is the “victim of the war.” Analysts also say that Russia is facing an increasing number of threats in its border regions. Here, it may be worth mentioning at least Russia’s loss of of three helicopters and two aircraft on May 14, in the Bryansk region.

Russian Imperialism Against the Backdrop of Nuclear Aggravation

Last week, the Russian Federation once again demonstrated their imperial aspirations. During a meeting with Chairman of the Constitutional Court, Valery Zorkin, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine was created by the Soviet Union, and “quasi-state formations” began to develop only after the October Revolution. “No Ukraine has ever existed in the history of mankind,” he said.

At the ceremony of awarding state awards, Putin denied that Russia had started “some war.” He claimed that with the help of the so-called special operation, Russia is trying to stop the war. In addition, the dictator stressed that the war is waged against part of the people commonly owned by Russia but because of “historical injustice they had been outside the historical Russian state.”

At the same time, the Kremlin refuses to freeze military operations and is going to achieve its goals through a “special operation” or other available means. One of these means was nuclear blackmail. In fact, on May 25 in Minsk, the defense ministers of the Russian Federation and Belarus signed an agreement on the procedure for placing Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus – “in response to unfriendly states”.

“Taking into account the military and political situation, together with the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, we are carrying out tasks to strengthen the common defense space,” Russian Minister Sergei Shoigu said in Minsk.

However, analysts at the Institute of War are confident that the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons does not indicate a real escalation. It is rather aimed at consolidating the actual military control of the Russian Federation over Belarus. According to experts, the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus requires significant military infrastructure, and therefore “the Kremlin may intend to use these requirements to further subordinate the Belarusian security sphere to Russia.”

However, the absorption of Belarus is happening not only in security area. President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, during the Eurasian Economic Forum on May 24, said that the formation of the so-called Union State with a single political, military, and economic space creates certain problems for other EAEU states.

“A unique precedent or phenomenon has been created in the global political history… the creation of a state according to the formula “two countries – one state,” Tokayev said. “We need to reckon with this reality. How we will work under these conditions is a conceptual question.”

Instead, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, was not particularly concerned about the concerns of his EAEU counterparts. On the contrary, he urged everyone to join the Union State in order to share nuclear weapons. At the same time, Russia expressed its readiness to defend Lukashenko if a popular uprising suddenly breaks out in Belarus. 

The prospect of an uprising caused by the Ukrainian counteroffensive is considered quite realistically by the Polish general Valdemar Skrzypczak.

“We must be ready to support those troops that will conduct an operation against Lukashenko. We have reasons to help them in the same way as we help Ukrainians,” he said.

However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Poland a “hostile” state for Russia, which is now “literally engulfed in hysterics of Russophobia.”

“The Russian Federation has commitments to ensure the security of Belarus, which we will do in the face of such an obvious threat,” Peskov said.

At the same time, the Kremlin is horrified by the idea that someone could even theoretically be helping Ukraine. Deputy head of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, threatened Ukraine with a preventive strike in the event that Ukraine receives nuclear weapons from Western allies.

“Then, it will mean that a missile with a nuclear charge will strike at them. There are some irreversible laws of war,” he said.

At the same time, Medvedev admitted that the special operation was not going according to plan, declaring the prospect of a protracted war.

“This conflict has been going on for a very long time now. It will probably last for decades, I guess. It is a new reality, new living conditions,” he said during his visit to Vietnam. 

Ukraine to receive $65 billion in military aid, and the allies to start training pilots for the F-16

On May 25, the 12th meeting of the Contact Group on Assistance to Ukraine was held in the Ramstein format. A key topic was the aviation coalition, which will begin training Ukrainian pilots on fourth-generation F-16 fighters. 

Following the Ramstein, we learned that Denmark and the Netherlands would lead a coalition to conduct training for Ukrainian pilots. In addition, Norway, Belgium, Portugal, and Poland also offered to contribute to the training exercise. 

According to Lloyd Austin, the training program should be prepared quickly so that the pilots begin to master the F-16 in the coming weeks. In general, the training of pilots can take 4 months, and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine expects that the F-16 will protect the Ukrainian sky as soon as in autumn. 

At the meeting, the participants agreed that the purchase and deployment of F-16 for Ukraine would be financed by a separate fund, which will be filled by donors, members of the coalition. 

However, Ukraine can get the fighter aircraft directly from countries that have them in their arsenal. The United States, as a manufacturing country, allowed countries with F-16s to transfer them to Ukraine. The Pentagon said that the United States considered it a priority to provide Ukraine with these fighters, and the effort would be pursued in the coming months.

Ukraine expects to receive from 40 to 50 F-16 aircraft. The Air Force believes that to outdo the enemy, they need to form 3 or 4 squadrons of fighters, with 12 to 16 aircraft in each. 

During the “Ramstein,” Lloyd Austin said that the United States and other countries of the Contact Group have pledged to provide Ukraine with military assistance totaling $65 billion. It is 10 billion more than Ukraine has received from the allies since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion to April 2023.

Germany, Finland, and Lithuania also announced new military aid packages for Ukraine. We now know that South Korea will provides Ukraine with artillery shells transiting through the United States. The US State Department approved the possible sale of NASAMS air defense systems and related equipment to Ukraine, at an estimated cost of $285 million. 

Most EU countries support the idea of increasing the fund for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine by EUR 3.5 bln. Germany is preparing to transfer 110 Leopard 1A5 tanks, announced earlier. Sweden joined the “tank coalition” and announced the transfer of 10 Leopard-2 tanks. Ukraine thanked the UK for the Storm Shadow missiles, which demonstrate the 100% outcomes. 

As the war rages on, the West is considering whether to invite Ukraine to join NATO before it regains control of the Russian-occupied territory. Then, the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine would be a goal for the future. As an example, they refer to West Germany. 

“Despite the division and the sad role of the border between nuclear rivals during the Cold War, West Germany became a NATO member in 1955, enjoying the protection of the alliance, never giving up its desire for unification, which finally came to fruition in 1989,” Steven Erlanger, chief diplomatic correspondent for the publication in Europe, writes in an op-ed for The New York Times.

EU and NATO member states continue to support Ukraine's EU and Euro-Atlantic aspirations in the context of preparations for the NATO summit due on July 11–12 in Vilnius. It can become a platform for crucial decisions on the prospects of Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance. 

Thus, the Prime Minister of Latvia, Krishianis Karins, called it mandatory for Ukraine to join the Alliance at the end of the war, since otherwise it will not be possible to guarantee peace and security on the continent. German Chancellor Olaf Scholsch, during the congress of the government's Social Democratic Party, promised that Ukraine would become the EU member after winning the war with Russia