Last week (March 13-19), the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. He is accused of a war crime of the deportation of Ukrainian children from the occupied territories of Ukraine to Russia.
At the same time, Slovakia handed over 13 MiG-29 aircraft to Ukraine, and Poland gave 4 more fighters. Following the Ramstein-10 meeting, Sweden became the 9th country in the “tank coalition”. The United States urged allies to fulfill their obligations to supply weapons to the Ukrainian counteroffensive planned for the spring.
Russia continues to destabilize the situation in Moldova and is glad that Russian aircraft managed to attack a US reconnaissance drone, which was eliminated due to significant damage.
Find below the key statements and developments of the war-struck week.
The Russians Downs a US Drone, Xi Travelling to Moscow
On March, 14, the US Air Force reported that a Russian Su-27 fighter jet damaged a US drone during interception over the Black Sea, which later had to be sunk. Later, the Pentagon released a video showing a Russian fighter jet attacking the drone.
US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, said, “This dangerous episode is part of a system of aggressive, risky, and dangerous Russian actions in international airspace.” A similar comment was voiced for CNN by the communications coordinator of the US National Security Council, John Kirby. He underscored that the Russian aircraft intercepting the US aircraft over the Black Sea is not uncommon, but the episode Tuesday “was unique in how unsafe, unprofessional, and reckless” the Russia's actions were.
But the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Sergei Lavrov, commenting on the “incident with the US drone”, called the claims of the US state Department “completely unfounded”. He even threatened that “the space around the US has the same status as the space over the Black Sea,” referring to the US statement that they would continue flights in international airspace.
The most aggressive comments were made by Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev. He said that “the Americans are extremely arrogant” and “it would be wrong to have much patience with them. Although we need military contacts, of course.” Besides, Medvedev actually threatened the US Senator and friend of Ukraine, Lindsey Graham, with bodily harm: “Sometimes, aviation events happen to such animals.”
It also became known that Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, recommended for the state awards the SU-27 pilots who shot down the US drone MQ-9 Reaper over the Black Sea. By the way, the American NBC News channel published a post that the highest leadership of the Kremlin approved the aggressive actions of the Russian military against the US drone.
In any case, the incident with the US drone has so far led to a serious diplomatic scandal between Washington and Moscow. Although, according to the NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov, “this is a signal of Putin's readiness to expand the conflict zone with the involvement of other parties. The all-in tactics is about constant raising of stakes in the context of a strategic loss, hoping for change in circumstances. ”
Circumstances, as you know, are changing. Surprisingly, this time it was Serbia. Serbian Economy Minister, Rade Basta, called for the imposition of anti-Russian sanctions as soon as possible: “Our country is already paying a heavy price for refusing to impose sanctions against Russia, and this is becoming increasingly unbearable.” Serbian President, Aleksandar Vucic, said he could not promise that at some point Serbia would not impose sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, called the position of the Serbian economy minister “strange” and advised him to speak out strongly against pressure on his country: “Russia, unlike the United States, has always respected Serbia and its people. And it is not only the historical truth, but also the obvious fact: with the introduction of sanctions against Russia, US pressure on Serbia will not end, but it will only increase.
Unlike Serbia, Russia has not let down its other ally, Syria. Dictator Bashar al-Assad, after talks with Putin in Moscow on March, 15, said that he recognized the territories of Ukraine seized by Russia as “Russian”: “I say that these are Russian territories, and even if there was no war, these are historically Russian territories.” Ukraine recognizes that Bashar al-Assad, Syrian Prime Minister, Hussein Arnous, and Syrian Foreign Minister, Faisal Mekdad, from now on, will be under our sanctions. The appropriate decree of the President of Ukraine was published on March, 18.
Finally, among the news of the diplomatic front, we must mention one of the main events of next week — the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, during the official visit of the Chinese leader to Russia, on March 20–22. The Kremlin has already called the “conflict in Ukraine” one of the topics of the agenda. The American Institute for the Study of War generally believes that Xi can offer Putin assistance in evading sanctions, and also will be likely to promote China's position as an impartial mediator in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. In this context, it is important to recall that negotiations are currently underway on the possibility of a conversation between Volodymyr Zelensky and Xi Jinping. The White House said they were encouraging the conversation.
On March, 17, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, the Russian president's commissioner for children's rights. They are suspected of illegal deportation of children from the occupied territories of Ukraine to the Russian Federation. According to Ukrainian data, the number of illegally displaced children is at least 16,000.
On February, 16, the Commissioner for Human Rights of the Russian Federation, at a meeting with Vladimir Putin, publicly boasted that she had adopted a boy from the occupied Mariupol. This way, she only helped in collecting evidence of the war crime. Civil Network OPORA explained in our feature about the legal consequences that the arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court will have.
The decision of the ICC triggered an instant response from the Russian side. Kremlin politicians did not recognize the court's decision, considering it null and void, treating the ICC as a puppet in the hands of the collective West. The head of the state Duma of Russia, Vyacheslav Volodin, went further and threatened to treat the actions against Putin as an attack on the Russian Federation.
At the same time, in response to the decision of the ICC, the head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Aleksandr Bastrykin, encouraged to start the preparation of an international judicial body to bring Ukrainian “war criminals” to justice.
It is no secret that Western countries are preparing international judicial bodies to bring Russia to justice. We have to start a similar effort, together with the Ministry of Justice, and maybe, headed by the Ministry of Justice,” he said.
However, this is unlikely to help the terrorist state, because the building of political and legal mechanisms for prosecuting Russia is underway. As of now, as many as 33 countries support the creation of the International Tribunal, which will allow to convict Russian criminals, even in absentia.
The Tank Coalition Growing, Ukraine to Receive MiGs, Russian Troops Exhaust Their Combat Capability
On March, 14, the 10th meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine in the Ramstein format was held online. The priority was to meet the needs of Ukraine in the near future, such as to provide ammunition for artillery and air defense systems, as well as tanks.
Following the meeting, it was made known that the Swedish government decided to transfer ten Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine for the upcoming May counteroffensive. This was announced by US Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin. According to him, the tank coalition is growing. For now, 9 countries have pledged to provide more than 150 tanks. The number of countries providing air defense systems is also growing.
The US Defense Secretary emphasized that now is the time when it is critical to provide Ukraine with the capabilities promised by the allies. “We must swiftly and fully deliver on our promises,” Austin said. “This includes delivering our armored vehicles to the battlefield, and ensuring that Ukrainian soldiers receive the training, spare parts, and technical support they need to use these new systems as soon as possible.”
Moreover, as indicated by the US publication Politico, US aid packages “over the past four to five months have been accounting for Ukraine’s needs for this counteroffensive.” The United States and allies have provided Ukraine with hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles, as well as artillery shells, which Kyiv identified as the most urgent need.
Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov, was satisfied with the meeting outcomes. “Ramstein-10 inspires optimism: strengthening air defense, ammo supplies, training and forming an “armored fist”,” he tweeted.
At the same time, the latest Ramstein, and especially the expansion of the tank coalition, caused outrage in Russia. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused the United States of “stimulating” the transfer of tanks by European countries to Ukraine, which “demonstrates Washington's obsessive commitment to a total hybrid war with Russia.”
Also, the dissatisfaction of Russian politicians was caused by the news that Ukraine received Soviet-made MiG-29 fighters from Poland and Slovakia. In total, we know about 17 aircraft. Thirteen units were provided by Slovakia, and four by Poland. At the same time, there is no knowledge about the precise number of fighters to be transferred to Poland. However, according to President Andrzej Duda, it is about more than 4 aircraft.
A spokesman for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, called the transfer of aircraft to Ukraine an example of how NATO countries are increasing their involvement in the “conflict”. Deputy of the State Duma and member of the negotiating group with Ukraine, Leonid Slutsky, called the decision of Poland and Slovakia a cheap Russophobic step that will not change the situation on the battlefield.
Meanwhile, according to a report by the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in 2022 Ukraine became the world's third importer of weapons (after Qatar and India). This became possible thanks to the military assistance of the United States and the EU countries. The largest arms suppliers to Ukraine were the United States (34%), Poland (17%), and Germany (11%).
As for the situation at the front, British intelligence reports that Russian troops have temporarily exhausted the combat capability of deployed formations in Ukraine, and have one of the lowest rates of offensive operations at least since January 2023. The ministry also reports that Russia is imposing a limit on shells, due to their shortage.
This statement is confirmed by the American publication Business Insider, which cited data from the War Mapper monitoring group and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The researchers estimated that during the offensive in February, the Russian army managed to capture 0.01% or 0.39% of the territory of Ukraine.
In their comment to the publication, representatives of ISW said that “both figures are quite small.” The reason for the difference between them may be a slight miscalculation, although both of them reflect the limited territorial gains of the enemy. “Russia gained this tiny piece of land, losing military equipment and thousands of soldiers (according to the Ukrainian General Staff, the enemy army lost 21,470 people killed — Ed.),” the newspaper sums up the “success” of the Russian offensive.
Protests, Spy Ring, and Russophile Congress: Russia Not Abandoning Any Intentions to Destabilize the World
Russia does not stop its destabilizing policy in the world. The same like last week, the aggressor is trying to create information provocations, undermine the situation in other countries through pro-Russian rallies, and expand its espionage network.
Last week, we learned that Russia was planning to establish political control over Moldova. This was found out by Moldovan investigative journalists, in cooperation with outlets from 10 more countries in Europe and the United States. The resulting document was drafted in 2021, and is entitled “Strategic Objectives of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Moldova”.
Russia is expected to deny the existence of any such document or plans to seize Moldova. Kremlin spokesman Peskov called it a fake and underscored that Russia “has been and remains open to establishing good-neighborly and mutually beneficial relations, including with Moldova.”
Meanwhile, pro-Russian rallies in Moldova are not subsiding. On March, 15, supporters of the pro-Russian Shor party blocked roads, shouting slogans against the country's president, Maia Sandu. The Minister of Defense of Moldova, Anatoly Nosaty, believes that there is no immediate armed threat from Russia at the moment, but the aggressor unleashed the hybrid war.
The statements of the Minister of Defense of Moldova coincide with the opinion of the British Foreign Minister, James Cleverly. He believes that the best way to protect Moldova is to help protect Ukraine. President Maia Sandu said that the citizens of her country should know who their friends and foes are. “Moldovans have never been and will never be on the side of murderers. We condemned Russia's aggression against Ukraine from the first day of the war," she said.
Russia's sabotage and espionage activities have also been detected in Poland. The country's internal security agency dismantled a spy network that has installed hidden cameras on routes used to deliver Western aid to Ukraine. In addition, the suspects were preparing sabotage attacks in the interests of Russian intelligence.
“Of course, it was a spy group; they collected information for those who attacked Ukraine and committed war crimes; the threat was real,” commented the Minister of National Defense, Mariusz Blaszczak.
Italian Defense Minister, Guido Crosetto, was also targeted by Russia. According to the Il Foglio newspaper, Italian intelligence found that the Kremlin allegedly planed an assassination attempt on him. The publication claims that the liquidation of the minister for $15 million was ordered by Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, and the crime was supposed to be executed by the Wagner PMC members.
At the same time, the Georgian authorities accused Ukraine of interfering in the country's internal affairs. Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili said that Ukrainian politicians allegedly supported the rallies and the coup in Georgia. At the same time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine strongly rejected such insinuations, and advised the Georgian authorities to look for enemies elsewhere.
“Representatives of Georgian authorities almost literally repeated the key messages of Russian propaganda and accused Ukraine of preparing a coup in Georgia. Ukraine has been and will remain a friend of the Georgian people, whom we wish not to stop building a European future,” Foreign Ministry spokesman, Oleh Nikolenko said.
Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, believes that, as in the case of the US drone, Russia's actions are trying to find the red lines that would be of benefit for them.
“ ‘Random’ cruise missiles in the airspace of Europe; the destruction of the MQ-9 Reaper over the Black Sea; anonymous scouts with their versions of the Nord Stream explosion; street protests in Georgia, Russia’s quaint attempts to draw new red lines and issue ultimatums,” Podolyak wrote on Twitter.
At the same time, Russia is going to do nothing but increase their presence in the world. On March, 14, in Moscow, the Russians held the first congress of the International Russophile Movement, which aims to “consolidate people in the world who are united by love for Russia.”
The event was opened by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergei Lavrov, and special representative of the Ministry, Steven Seagal. The international movement was headed by Bulgarian politician, Nikolai Malinov. “Tomorrow or the day after tomorrow we will learn about the assessments of this event. Without a doubt, as was the case with the most recent events in Moldova and Georgia, someone will say that this is another case of “Moscow's scheming,” an intrigue designed to win people over with promises and bribery… It is all the more important for us to keep our integrity and remain committed to the best international traditions of friendship between peoples,” Lavrov said.
At the same time, in New York, Russia convened a meeting of the UN Securityф Council on manifestations of Russophobia. The meeting was mainly about Russophobia in Ukraine. At the same time, Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, tried to convince his colleagues that they had gathered not to discuss the internal situation in Ukraine, but to draw attention to a large-scale Russophobic campaign that directly threatens international peace and security. At the same time, he denied that the anti-Russian policy in the world arose as a result of the so-called special operation.