The past week (October, 3–9) was characterized by the allies’ significant support for Ukraine, by new sanctions against the rf, and certainly, by the outstanding event that made Ukrainians shine with joy – partial destruction of Kerch bridge.

Nonetheless, during past week, russians have repeatedly ruthlessly terrorized Ukrainian cities, such as Zaporizhzhia. They shelled residential houses and killed civilians.

In addition, as soon as the new week started, the terrorist state made massive rocket strikes at civilian infrastructure in dozens of Ukraine’s cities. Albeit, Ukrainians will not be intimidated!

Read more in our review about how Ukraine and the world responded to russia’s aggression last week.

putin’s trophes and “priorities” of russians

Early last week, the US outlet "WSJ" published some interesting information about russia transforming into the largest "provider" of heavy weapons for Ukraine. How come? Easy – the “prizes of war” abandoned in the battlefield and available for the Ukrainian army. 

"Ukraine’s recent gains turned Moscow into by far the largest supplier of heavy weapons for Ukraine, well ahead of the U.S. or other allies in sheer numbers. Western-provided weapons, though, are usually more advanced and precise."

According to the publication, Ukraine has captured 460 russian main battle tanks, 92 self-propelled howitzers, 448 infantry fighting vehicles, 195 armored fighting vehicles, and 44 multiple-launch rocket systems. The real number is likely higher. 

Much of machinery has been captured by the Armed Forces on the Kharkiv front, but the information about the South of Ukraine seems no less optimistic.

Thus, according to British Intelligence, russia now faces a dilemma: "withdrawing fighting troops through Dnipro will make the defense of Kherson region less resilient; but the political imperative says to stay and fight back." Therefore, according to British experts, russia might plan to deploy the mobilized reservists in this specific sector. Whether it turns out that way, is yet to be seen.

Russian can actually be guided by political motives in their decision-making. Thus, for example, according to some sources, putin, despite FSB’s objections, did decide to exchange his fellow, medvedchuk, for Ukrainian prisoners of war, as he allegedly promised that to Oksana marchenko. 

Whatever the reason, but russia’s and putin’s plans can always face a harsh reality. In particular, the NSDC secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, said that the number of citizens abandoning Russia in the recent days is double the number of the mobilized citizens. Furthermore, according to Danilov, "the number of people willing to fight against our country is thinning fast… We have a plethora of information about the military refusing to fight, or to train… local uprisings are starting."

Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov, also advised to Russians to think hard about the truth. He addressed russian members of the military urging them “not to miss on the opportunity and save russia from disaster, and the russian army from humiliation." 

We cannot know yet how many russians would prioritize their own lives and at least some future for their country.

On the other hand, priorities of Ukrainians are well known. They are peace and victory, and a safe and promising Euro-Atlantic future.

Thus, support for Ukraine’s joining NATO has grown to unprecedent levels in history. A survey conducted by "Rating" shows that the decision would be supported by 83% of Ukrainian people. In addition, 86% of respondents would support Ukraine’s EU membership in the event of any such referendum. With regard to the fact that this week NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, received through diplomatic channels Ukraine’s application for NATO membership under the accelerated procedure, the survey results are a significant sign about further aspirations of Ukrainian people.

russia’s nuclear blackmail

russia’s nuclear blackmail theme was still valid last week. To counter it,  in the Australian Lowy Institute, Volodymyr Zelensky urged to impose new preventive sanctions against moscow, to disable russia’s use of nuclear weapon.

On the other hand, russian propagandists went hysterical and labeled it a call for the world war. Press secretary of the rf’s president, dmitriy peskov, went even further to call Zelensky’s statement a call for "unleashing the world war with the unpredictable horrible consequences," while a spokesperson of russian foreign ministry, maria zakharova, said that the "West is instigating a nuclear war and can destroy the planet with Zelensky’s hands."

At the same time, British Secretary of State for Defense, Ben Wallace, spoke of his concerns, putin’s irrational actions, and nuclear blackmail. In particular, he said that all the past actions of the russian leader, from the Salisbury attacks with the nerve agent to invasion on Ukraine, were "absolutely irrational.” Despite that, Wallace emphasized that he believed the use of nuclear weapons hardly likely: "Although the use of nuclear weapons is part of russia’s military doctrine, it would be unacceptable for moscow’s allies, India and China."

Certain NATO states, though, are more active responding to putin’s threats.

Thus, in response to the nuclear threat escalation coming from the rf, Poland got more active. President Andrzej Duda said that the country was negotiating with the U.S. on participating in a program of shared use of nuclear weapons to counteract the rowing threats from russia. The program is part of NATO’s nuclear deterrence policy that enables member states with no such weapons to engage in planning of its use.

Western-provided support continues

After the illegally conducted and totally rigged referenda, dmitriy peskov said that "the borders of the occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts have not been defined yet, and that they would depend on the will of the people, but there will be no new referenda on those territories." In other words, putin’s press-secretary could not even explain which territories have been purportedly annexed by the Russian federation, although the annexation of the territories had been approved by the rf state duma back on October, 3.

Interestingly enough, but the illegal annexation of the Ukrainian territory was supported only by North Korea. Thus, Jo Chol Su, director-general of international organizations at Pyongyang’s Foreign Ministry, said that the referendums were held “legitimately in line with the U.N. Charter," but "the United States was holding gangster-like double-standards after having invaded other countries to maintain its own “supremacy.”

On the other hand, back on September, 30, Ukraine responded to the annexation of territories by submitting an application for NATO membership, and by the NSDC decision claiming that the negotiations with the rf president, vladimir putin, are impossible. In addition, the acts violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine have been declared null and void by the President’s Decree.

In that regard, the support of Ukraine coming from our allies was critical this week. It is interesting to note that we have been assisted by our partner states and by civic initiatives, alike.

In particular, the United States published the details of the new package of assistance of USD 625 mln. It will include 4 HIMARS and ammunition for them, 16 howitzers 155 mm and 75,000 missiles  for them, 500 high-precision 155mm missiles, and 1000 units of ammunition of the same caliber for remotely-controlled anti-tank mine systems, 16 units of 105 mm howitzers and many other items.

At the same time, the EU has approved a new, the 8th package of sanctions against the rf, in response to the annexation of Ukrainian territories. The approved sanctions introduce into the EU legislation the framework for upper limit of prices for transportation of russian oil to the third countries and for further restrictions on sea transportation of crude oil and petroleum products to the third countries, according to the press-service of the Council of the EU.

In addition, the EU, as part of their new training mission, plans to train 15,000 Ukrainian members of the military. It was informed earlier last week by the German Spiegel.

The ninth package of military assistance to Ukraine was approved by Finland. The cost of the previously provided support packages is estimated as ca EUR 93 mln.

President Emmanuel Macron of France announced about the establishment of the special fund in the EU amounting to EUR 100 mln, which will help Ukraine conduct direct procurements of military machinery.

Czech Republic also approved further military help to Ukraine. The new package of sanctions includes heavy equipment. In addition, Czech citizens fundraised in September CZK 30 mln (ca EUR 1.2 mln), as part of civic initiative to procure a modernized tank T-72 for Ukrainian Army.

In contrast, the mobilized people in russia receive the support in fish terms. That is correct, it is fish. It was informed by the head of the regional ececutive committee of the “united russia” party, Mikhail shuvalov. In Sakhalin, families of the mobilized persons will be given 5 kilos of fish per capita, as part of government support: The government of the Sakhalin region made an arrangement with fishery businesses, and now the Sakhalin region has been allocated with ab. 9 tons of chilled fish. It includes brill, pollack, keta fish... Families of the mobilized citizens will be given about 5 to 6 kg of fish per person."

"Presents" for putin

 According to the Chair of the “Center for Civic Liberties,” Oleksandra Matviychuk, who received the Nobel Peace Prize later last week, "russia must be expelled from the UN Security Council, and an international tribunal shall be created to prosecute vladimir putin." 

The tribunal might come as a birthday gift for putin next year. At least, the expectations have been expressed by the Estonian Foreign Minister, Urmas Reinsalu, who also urged to establish a special tribunal for rf crimes in Ukraine, and wished to putin to meet his next birthday behind the bars.

belarus dictator has not overlooked putin, either. He prsented putin with a Belarus tractor. However, by far the best birthday present was delivered for putin on the next day, when parts of the Kerch bridge were destroyed . putin accused Ukrainian special services of that, and also labeled the bridge explosion as a “terror act”. He rushed to sign a decree assigning the FSB to protect the Kerch bridge. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, "on that day, regretfully, it was cloudy in the occupied Crimea, Криму, although warm."

Interestingly, "putin’s anniversary" also had other curveball presents from the alleged "russia’s allies". Thus, president Sadyr Japarov of Kirgizstan did not come to attend putin’s celebration. In addition, later, Kirgizstan decided to cancel the CSTO training exercise in their territory.

As we can see, past week brought a series of defeats for russians in diplomatic and military fronts. As a result, russians acted back early this week – on October, 10, they utilized their only tactics of terror and inflicted massive rocket strikes on Ukraine.

This publication was prepared within the framework of the project "Civil Society for Ukraine's Post-war Recovery and EU-Readiness", which is implemented with the financial support of the European Union. Its content is the sole responsibility of the Civil Network OPORA and does not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.