Past week (September, 26 – October, 3) was rich in important, even historic, events and public statements that will have a major impact on further turns in the war.

First, russia hurriedly annexed Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine. The kremlin said they now consider those territories as their own, and thus defend them with all possible methods, also with the nuclear weapon. Their estimates are simple, such as to intimidate Ukraine, and to force it to surrender and abandon the occupied regions.

However, russia’s success ended with that. There are several reasons to explain.

First, Ukraine stayed undeterred in the face of the threats, and said they are ready to fight until all territories are returned.

Secondly, Ukraine submitted the application for NATO membership, thus fully rejecting the idea of the non-bloc status, which since the start of the war has been one of the compromise items in the negotiations with russia.

Thirdly, the rf announced about the annexation in the time when their army are retreating in several axes. In particular, the day after the declaration of the annexation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated Lyman town in Donetsk oblast, and broke through the defense line of russian troops near Kherson.

In addition, Ukraine is trying to make use of the anti-mobilization protests in russia for our benefit. More specifically, Volodymyr Zelensky recorded a video where he spoke russian to encourage indigenous ethnicities in russia not to go to war against Ukraine, but rather fight for their freedom out in the streets and public squares.

Ukraine Not to Accept the Annexation

On September, 27, russian authorities in the occupied territories of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine completed their sham referenda, and declared that 87% to 99% of Ukrainian citizens in those territories voted for joining the rf.

Ukraine gave a strong response to the rigged vote. Kyiv initiated the meeting of the UN Security Council on September, 27, where our country’s representatives called on the international community to strongly respond to the violation of international law, rule and order, and said that no negotiations with russia can be possible after the annexation.

“russia’s recognition of the pseudo-referenda as purportedly normal, the delivery of the so-called Crimean scenario, and another attempt at the annexation of Ukraine’s territory will mean that there is nothing to discuss with this president of russia.

Annexation is a step that puts him alone against the entire humanity. It is the kind of sign that shall be sent from each country in the world today,” highlighted the President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine who attended the meeting through a video-call.

Thereafter, on September, 28, in his address to the nation, Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine cannot and will not tolerate any attempts to capture any part of our land.

The President also reiterated that Ukraine had to reclaim all of its temporarily occupied territories, which is when any end of war could be brought up.

The message failed to get through to kremlin. On September, 30, vladimir putin annexed part of Ukraine. He signed the “accord on incorporation into russia” of the seized territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and said that their residents will be citizens of rf from then on.

In addition, russian dictator delivered his speech addressing Kyiv and the West, and repeatedly urged Ukraine to stop all combat activity and return to the negotiating table.

The only thing is that the negotiations on russia’s terms mean that for the sake of peace, Ukraine must accept the loss of our territories. putin reiterated it when he said that the “choice” the residents of the occupied territories purportedly opted for “will not be in question.”

Moreover, to have Ukraine realize the seriousness of russia’s intentions, the kremlin emphasized that they would treat possible attacks of Ukraine at the territories that russia now considers their own as an act of aggression against russia.

Ukraine Will Not be Swayed by Any Nuclear Threats

moscow added that in order “to protect” those territories, they might even use nuclear weapon because the USA had created a precedent by striking Hiroshima and Nagasaki with nukes to compel Japan into laying down arms in the Second World War.

With those words, putin implied his plan to intimidate Ukraine and to compel it to surrender. However, so far, the russia’s strategy of nuclear blackmail has not been successful. This is not because Kyiv does not take russia’s president seriously.

On the contrary, Ukraine does understand that putin is not bluffing. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that in his address.

Nevertheless, even the potential use of nuclear weapons does not stop Ukraine from defending our territories. It was mentioned by NSDC secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, in his comment for “Radio Liberty”.

“If global community, NATO Member States, do not offer any response to such a reckless attack (if it takes place, God forbid), it does not mean we are not going to defend our land. I want to make it clear that no one can stop us: neither putin, nor his army. Which has been proven many times now,” the politician said.

Another track that russia is amplifying is about the impunity for the potential use of nuclear weapon since NATO MS will not take any direct steps in response for fear of their safety. It was posted in the Telegram by the deputy head of the rf Security Council, russia’s ex-president, dmitriy medevedev.

As a result, Kyiv calls on the West to strongly respond to russia’s threats. More specifically, the head of the Office of the President, Andriy Yermak, is certain that if the world does not give any strident and definitive response to russia’s nuclear blackmail, it may lead to nuclear wars with millions of victims.

Nevertheless, the West is also aware of the fact that russia’s declarations shall not be left without any adequate response. That is why, according to the “European Truth” referring to Bloomberg, US Presidential administration of Joe Biden has non-publicly warned the kremlin about “catastrophic consequences” for russia for any use of nuclear weapon in the war against Ukraine.

The consequences are not known yet but, hopefully, the reasoning provided by the USA would suffice to cool russia’s hot heads.

Ukraine Submits the Application for NATO Membership

Against the backdrop of failure of russia’s intimidating strategy, Ukrainian Armed Forces continued their successful gains in different sections of the battle front.

Moreover, after the annexation of parts of Ukrainian territories was announced, Kyiv took an unconventional step, unexpectedly for all, including also for Western allies. Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine was submitting the application for NATO membership under the Sweden’s and Finland’s scenarios, i.e. under the fast-track procedure.

De facto, this step put an end to Ukraine’s non-bloc status that has been one of the compromise tracks in the negotiations with russia since the start of the war. The statement was confirmed by the advisor to the head of the Office of the President, Mykhaylo Podoliak, who said that following rf’s recent actions, the subject of Ukraine’s non-bloc status has been closed.

“We need to be clear about one thing. Transition of war into a new phase, such as the attack at civilian critical infrastructure and attempted annexation of territories, has left behind any room for compromise or diplomatic settlement. Among other things, the subject has been closed for Ukraine’s non-bloc status. We find it important,” he emphasized.

In the first days, Ukraine’s initiative received public support from one third of the Alliance members but the US believe that the matter of Ukraine’s NATO membership shall be considered “at other time”, while today, it is more pertinent to provide Ukraine with support to fight russia’s aggression.

Notwithstanding, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine will work on having skeptical states review their positions on Ukraine’s NATO membership.

Besides, the diplomat said that currently, the ball is in NATO’s court, and if the Alliance decides to set the list of steps for Ukraine to successfully integrate, our country is prepared to take them.

In russia, Ukrainian NATO application was commented by a spokeswoman of the foreign ministry, maria zakharova. However, she seems to have forgotten that Ukraine’s potential membership in the Alliance was one of the official reasons for russia’s “special operation,” when she said that Ukraine opted for their own path, but russia would go its own way.

kremlin Is Wary of Zelensky Disrupting the Mobilization

A ridiculous case took place at the above-mentioned meeting of the UNSC. russia’s permanent representative, vasily nebenzya, accused the President of Ukraine of attempted disruption of mobilization in russia because he had recorded several addresses to russia’s citizens, such as to indigenous peoples.

“President Zelensky was not shy in the past days to record several video addresses in russian attempting to disrupt the recently announced partial mobilization in russia, suggesting Maydan recipes to ‘drive a wedge’ between the government and the people.

Hence today, president Zelensky spoke in a video and claimed that under this mobilization, mostly non-ethnical russian citizens are recruited, mostly men representing russia’s indigenous population in the regions. That’s not going to work out in russia,” said rf’s permanent representative to the UN.

Moreover, he reassured that such addresses will fail since russians are ready to die for their homeland, like their forefathers have been doing for centuries.

It is probably the description of men who have been trying hard for the past several days to flee from russia to Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Finland, and other countries to dodge mobilization.

You will recall that after partial mobilization was announced in russia, Volodymyr Zelensky recorded several videos speaking russian and addressing rf citizens. On September, 25, he called on them “not to submit to the vicious mobilization” and advised russians to desert or to surrender at the earliest opportunity.

In addition, President of Ukraine emphasized that russia was using mobilization also for physical destruction of men from the indigenous ethnicities living on russia-controlled territories.

It is obvious that Volodymyr Zelensky drew that conclusion on the basis of the data showing that the killed soldiers of the russia’s army are mostly representatives of indigenous people, such as Dagestani and Buryats.

On September, 29, in the context of anti-mobilization protests taking place in Dagestan, Volodymyr Zelensky posted another video address speaking to russia’s indigenous people, specifically to ethnicities in the Caucasus.

In the opinion of Ukrainian President, the indigenous people that had been enslaved by russia in the past must not participate in the predatory war it is waging against Ukraine today.

“Peoples of the Caucasus! All nations on russia’s territory! You have no reason to be part of those who are still serving that one him who wants the war. You do not have to be killed in Ukraine. Your sons do not have to die in Ukraine. You do not have any such duty. Neither to your parents, nor to your children, nor to your future, nor to the future of your land. And you know it,” says the president’s video address.

Furthermore, Volodymyr Zelensky encouraged the indigenous peoples not to go to war against Ukraine but rather to fight for their freedom out in russia’s streets and public squares.

“To have russia’s citizens go to war, they are artificially wedged into poverty. Into loans. People are threatened with repressions, they are bullied by propaganda. You can change it. You just need to understand who your true symbol is, who your hero is, who you can be proud of in your history, and who simply wants to use you,” said Volodymyr Zelensky.

We hope that russian citizens will hear the Ukrainian message.

This publication was prepared within the framework of the project "Civil Society for Ukraine's Post-war Recovery and EU-Readiness", which is implemented with the financial support of the European Union. Its content is the sole responsibility of the Civil Network OPORA and does not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.