Even though, according to most Ukrainian experts, Ukraine is not inferior in the level of development, on a par with other European countries when they received candidate status, some European leaders still question the awareness of the borders of political Europe. This is an unprecedented situation when a week before the European Council it is still unknown what the decision will be. However, the visits of European leaders may indicate potential good news. European integration is a long process, but now Ukraine has a window of opportunity to start it publicly and actively. Experts spoke about this during the weekly inclusion of OPORA.Live on Wednesday, June 15.

According to the head of the board of the Civil Network OPORA Olga Aivazovska, the events, although dynamic, are not perceived by Ukrainians unequivocally. After all, many parties are trying to influence this process. "On June 17, the European Commission will announce an assessment of applications from Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia for EU candidate status. This is not a membership yet. But on June 23-24, the European Council will meet as a political body, which will make a larger historical and, at the same time, the symbolic decision for us. Many visits, events, and discussions around this issue indicate that the situation is changing dynamically. And each party is trying to influence this process in some way, including Russian Federation. Insiders, processes, and discussions also evidence this. We also see a huge number of visits, especially the last one announced, including French President Emanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi ahead of the commission's June 17 decision. Unfortunately, one part of the audience is concerned about this visit with some concern, because if the decision is positive and all three countries support Ukraine's candidacy, then is this visit directly related to the track of the theater of operations, forcing Ukraine to negotiate with the Russian Federation, conditions of Russia and so on ", - Olga Aivazovskaya notes.

Maria Golub, an expert on Ukraine-EU bilateral relations, a representative of the ANTS Network for the Protection of National Interests, and the International Center for Ukraine's Victory, believe that this week until next Thursday will be decisive and most dynamic. "I can't say whether this is good or bad news, but it is as it is. We do not have a solution as of now. This is an unprecedented case for the European Union because such decisions are usually more or less ready, at least at the level of understanding the key area, i.e., what will be submitted to the European Council. All these decisions are prepared in 2-3 weeks, there is understanding. As of now, there is no understanding of this. Moreover, there is no agreement of key players, "Maria Golub said.

According to her, at the diplomatic meeting on June 15, the ambassadors of the EU member states discussed the position paper (position document) proposed by the President of France. And it clearly states that France does not consider granting Ukraine EU candidate status as something that will help Ukraine in the short term to both reform and win this war. They also proposed the creation of a so-called "European political union". Others were very ambivalent about France's proposal. For example, our Baltic partners have reacted very harshly to this, proposing that Macron extend its competence only to France or discuss the future of the EU and the world more inclusively. "What can this mean for Ukraine?" The first signal is that there is no agreement among the key member states, which is what we will come up with on June 23. And the second point is that these discussions are ongoing, how the EU sees its internal reform," said Maria Golub.

"No formatting or reforming is acceptable for us. We have a specific process. It is very technical, it is very difficult to understand, and does not really need to be understood by the general public, but it is. That is, how a country moves from applying for membership to receiving a positive wording about accession. There are concrete steps that are acceptable to the EU, so it is clear that, firstly, there is no need to invent anything else, except that this is a way to simply distract the problem. The second point is that, in fact, these reformulations are very dangerous because Ukraine is now seen as a role model. That is, the decision to be made in Ukraine is a signal, including both for the Western Balkans and for other countries in the region that are expressing their European integration hopes. That is why now all attention is focused on how the issue of Ukraine will be resolved," Maria Golub emphasizes.

According to the expert, discussions are underway in the EU member states on whether Ukraine is ready for this status. But from a technical point of view, given the Questionnaire and the progress made in implementing the Association Agreement, we fully meet the criteria for a country requesting candidate status. According to the expert, it will be most acceptable for Ukraine to obtain candidate status. She also called it acceptable to grant the status with a number of clear fixed requirements for implementation in order to start the next stage of European integration - the start of negotiations. "I still believe that Ukraine needs to wait (with the fulfillment of the requirements for the beginning of the next stage - ed.). Why? Simply because it will be logical to link the process of European integration with the plan to restore Ukraine," Maria Golub said.

Instead, any reformulation, such as "European perspective for Ukraine", "candidate for candidate", is absolutely unacceptable. According to the expert, this is, firstly, not fair, because Ukraine is technically ready to apply, and, secondly, it is a different format of discussions, because then next time we will not be able to return to discussing the application soon. The expert believes that even if there are conditions for implementation, the European bureaucracy will come to our aid, because there is unlikely to be recorded something hard in the wording. Thus, in discussions on the fulfillment of criteria, it will be possible to discuss their fulfillment in accordance with our vision.

Now, according to the expert, it is important to understand that the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen stands for us. "Literally on Monday and Tuesday, a hearing will be held in Luxembourg (this is called COREPER), where the Ambassadors of the EU member states will meet. They will discuss this proposal of the European Commission, the European Commission will be represented there, that is, it is good that we will be protected there as well. Then they will take time to consult with their capitals. And I understand that we will most likely not receive any specifics on June 22. In other words, the ambassadors will say that we have an open conclusion, accordingly we will pass the information to the highest level and the representatives of the EU member states - that is, the prime ministers, ministers who are responsible for what - will gather on June 23. And this key discussion will be open, and it will be on June 23, "Maria Golub said.

According to the expert, now some EU member states that have had some concerns are also in discussions with the European Commission about their concerns. Therefore, we need to strengthen our cooperation and communication with EU member states, especially those who are still hesitant. "In principle, we still have a week to express our position, articulate it quite clearly and say once again that any reformatting is unacceptable for us," Maria Golub said. She also hopes that our European friends will actively advocate for us, strengthen their position in the Baltic States, and Sweden, Denmark and Spain will join these discussions.

Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine Olha Stefanyshyna notes that no additional decisions need to be made at the level of, for example, the Verkhovna Rada. "We can make some symbolic decisions, including to vote on bills in parliament, showing their good will and we can hope that they will have some effect in decision-making. Maybe we will. But in fact, from a political point of view, our main message is that the decision to grant candidate status is a decision we have won over the years, our European choice, our people, 91% support, and the reforms we have already implemented. For us, this is a principled position," Olga Stefanishina.

According to her, some of the countries that have set some conditions simply do not understand our state and do not realize the great path we have taken in recent times. Therefore, it is possible that the Verkhovna Rada will make some decisions in the near future, but they are definitely not a precondition for making a decision on Ukraine's EU bid. "In some countries, the mandate to make a decision on June 24 must be given by parliaments. In particular, these are quite skeptical countries, such as Denmark, Holland, Germany, Sweden. In some countries, such positions have already been stated, such as in Germany, there has already been an official statement that the Bundestag supports the granting of candidate status. That is why we are working in the parliamentary dimension now, but we still have a high chance of making this decision. Its adoption, in our view, will not weaken Ukraine, but will weaken the European Union significantly enough, "said Olga Stefanishina.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and the Italian Prime Minister will pay a visit to Ukraine on the eve of June 17, when the European Commission is due to announce the evaluation of applications from Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia for EU candidate status. Mario Draghi, an expert, said: “Unfortunately, I cannot comment on the visit, but communication on such a visit by these three leaders, say, Old Europe - Italy, Germany and France - has been going on for quite some time. We would like to see these leaders in Ukraine on May 9 as a symbol of the leaders of Old Europe uniting to build a new Europe with Ukraine. This is obviously a priority for discussion. But the most important issue is the issue of peace and the end of the war, and they are being discussed in this format."

The Deputy Prime Minister believes that now the influence of Russian lobbying on the opposition to the decision to grant Ukraine EU candidate status by certain European countries is smaller than ever. "It is also important that Russia has always underestimated us. Having started the war in the same way, Russia underestimated our state and, accordingly, did not expect that there would be serious resistance,” Olga Stefanishina said. In her opinion, Russia has not invested seriously enough in the confrontation with Ukraine on the path to European integration, because it also underestimated our efforts and unity in achieving this goal. "I think they have other goals now - a complete failure of the military offensive in Ukraine and the desire to achieve the lifting of sanctions at any cost. That's why we chose the right moment, it's really historic from the point of view of many contexts, and, in fact, we did everything right, "said Olga Stefanishina.

According to OPORA`s analyst Oleksandr Neberykut, society may have slightly inflated expectations about the speed of EU accession due to the intensity of the processes that are currently underway. "If we go back to 2009 or 2012-2013, when the Association Agreement was to be signed, many may get the impression that we have been going for a long time, that we are only talking about the candidacy in 2022. On the other hand, if we look at where we are now, many are very optimistic that this war has created such a window of opportunity and we, they say, would not have received it if Russia had not attacked us," Olexander Neberykut.

Oleksandr Sushko, executive director of the International Renaissance Foundation, an expert in international relations and civil society development, believes that the process of full European integration will continue for a long time, but not because of Ukraine's alleged unpreparedness. "In fact, Ukraine's joining the European family not in words, but in practice legally, politically, socially, economically is a very long history. Of course, it cannot be solved by one fact of Ukraine’s heroic resistance to Russian aggression, it cannot be solved by a rush. Because solving this problem requires a fundamental shift in the consciousness of Europeans in fact, especially Western Europeans, but not only in terms of what is a political and social Europe. And it is these changes that are happening before our eyes today. Because despite the fact that over the last decade Ukraine has made a huge number of steps forward, it has acquired very serious new qualities. And today it really formally corresponds to the status of a candidate in the EU, compared to other countries at the time when they received candidate status," said Olexander Sushko.