Last week (May, 23 – 29), one of the most debatable topics was the global food crisis. As a matter of fact, the rf war in Ukraine is hitting major blows on global food system. Russian aggression provoked the termination of deliveries from Ukrainian ports that used to export a large amount of oil and grain. It reduced a global offer of food products and triggered a sharp increase in prices. Taking advantage of the situation orchestrated by russians themselves, they blackmail everyone to lift the sanctions in exchange of deblocking Ukrainian seaports. However, Ukraine and the EU reject russia’s blackmailing. To tackle the issue, Lithuania raised an idea to create a naval coalition to lift the blockade from Ukrainian seaports in the Black Sea.

russia has actively embarked on the approach that in order to reach peace and stop the war, Ukraine has to give away the territories occupied by the rf. However, Ukraine is not going to accept any territorial concessions. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that our country will be fighting and reclaiming all temporarily occupied territories. According to the President, Ukraine is not ready to give away Donbas and Crimea to russia, but their future will be decided during the negotiations, after russian troops retreat to the borders that Ukraine used to control before February, 24.

In addition, russian diplomats are hysterical because of the possible supply of multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) from the USA to Ukraine. They could reverse the situation in the battlefield to Ukraine’s favour. Kyiv has long asked to provide these systems but the negotiations were fruitless. However, after the second meeting in Ramstein, some US media reported that Washington approved a decision to provide this weapon for Ukraine for active services.

Blackmail as Weapon: russia Wants to Have Sanctions Lifted in Exchange of Deblocking Ukrainian Seaports

According to the UN, global food prices have already grown 30% compared to last year. UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, said that in the coming months, the “food shortage in the world” will be an even more pertinent issue that may extend for many years to come. According to him, high prices on basic food products have already triggered the situation when about 250 mln people are on the brink of starvation.

Global food crisis is now very serious whereas the tactic of blocking Ukrainian seaports is a deliberate step that russia undertook as a blackmailing method. This is how the actions of russia were described live on YouTube channel “OPORA Speaks” by a professor of the Kyiv School of Economics, a coordinator of the research project UaFoodTrade, Oleg Nivievskyi.

“Global food crisis is actually rather deep. Russia knows which sore point to twist. The global grain stock has been rather low for the past three or four years. If we zone out China, we are now entering a year with the lowest global grain stock over the past15 years,” Nivievskyi says. According to the expert, russia is a “street mug in global grain market” because the country raised the risks, undermined the deliveries of the key grain supplier in the world, and triggered turbulence in the market. Hunger is knocking on the door of the countries where Ukraine used to supply the grain. “With concessions to russia, we will only increase the risk factor. Because russia will think they would always be able to blackmail the world with food supplies. The risk will always be there, and we are not going to improve food security in the world with this method,” the expert explained.

The problem has been actively debated in Ukraine and internationally. Thus, on May, 24, during the World Economic Forum in Davos, President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that russia uses food supply as the weapon with global consequences, and acts the same as in energy sector. In addition, she was talking about the “global cooperation antidote to russia’s blackmail.”

“In the occupied territories of Ukraine, the Kremlin army is confiscating grain stock and the machinery (...) And Russian warships in the Black Sea are blocking Ukrainian ships full of grain and seeds,” — von der Leyen added.

Shortly before, on May, 20, a similar position was mentioned by the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. In his address to the UN Security Council, he called on russia to stop the blockade of Ukrainian seaports that disabled the regular export routes.

“Russian authorities apparently believe that using food as weapon will help them achieve what the invasion failed — to break the spirit of Ukrainians. Food supply literally “keeps hostage” millions of Ukrainian people and even more people in the world,” — he said and added that about 20 mln tons of grain is now blocked in Ukraine.

Blinken faced proactive objections from the Permanent Representative of rf to the UN, vasily nebenzya. He rejected as “totally untruthful” all statements claiming that russia was responsible for the growing global food crisis, and accused Ukraine of purportedly keeping foreign ships in the ports and mining the aquatic area of the Black Sea, although it was russia mining the area.

Russian policy of negating the facts and shifting responsibility for their actions to other countries was supported by russian press secretary, dmitriy peskov, and a deputy foreign minister, andrey rudenko. Peskov said that russia was not the root of problems triggering global hunger, but rather the countries that imposed sanctions. rudenko commented on the statement of Ursula von der Leyen, and de facto confirmed that russia is “blackmailing” everyone and said that lifting the blockade from Ukrainian seaports to export grain can be possible when sanctions against russia are eased.

“Resolving food crisis requires a comprehensive approach, also connected with the lifting of sanctions imposed on russian exports and financial transactions,”— he said.

In addition, rudenko said, in line with russian propaganda, that Ukraine is blocking the sales of their grain because Ukraine mined the aquatic area of the Black Sea. Although, as mentioned before, Russian troops did it.

Another propaganda narrative was rudenko’s statement that russia was not stealing Ukrainian grain from the temporarily occupied territories. The information was confirmed in Ukrainian Government, and also in international media. Thus, on May, 4, the first deputy Minister for Agrarian and Food Policy, Taras Vysotsky, said that russians removed the total of appr. 400,000 tons of grain from the four temporarily occupied regions, or one third of all grain stock from these regions. On May, 19, Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, thanked to the Foreign Minister of Egypt, Sameh Shoukry, for their country’s effort to refuse buying from russians the grain stolen from Ukraine. On May, 23, CNN posted the story with satellite images showing how russia was loading the grain stolen in Ukraine on their ships in the ports of the occupied Crimea.

At the same time, during his address in Davos, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called not to succumb to russia’s blackmail about the “corridor” for Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea in exchange of lifting the sanctions.

“Russia is now blackmailing everyone claiming they would lift the blockade from the ways for export for Ukrainian agricultural products if the West lifts the sanctions. Unfortunately, some people are buying into it… Thus, we commiserate with everyone in the world who were affected by the large-scale consequences of the russian blockade. But I encourage every politician, regardless of their status or country they represent: before you speak of lifting the sanctions to save the starving children, come to Ukraine and see the killed children, talk to the parents of children raped by Russian soldiers – and fall silent,” — Kuleba responded.

The UK also rejected the russia’s idea. British Defense Minister, Ben Wallas, said that there will be no lifting of sanctions in exchange of the corridor for Ukrainian grain. “I call on russia to do the right thing, in the spirit of humanity, and let Ukrainian grain out, and stop stealing grain for their needs. Let us not talk about the sanctions, let us do the right thing,” — said Wallas.

The Minister also supported the idea to enable Black Sea countries to convoy grain supply from Ukraine. Please, be reminded that shortly before, Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, suggested creating the naval coalition to lift Russian blockade from Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea region. He also added that Great Britain expressed their willingness to join the operation.

“It will be a non-military humanitarian mission, it cannot be compared to the no-fly zone. This initiative will engage military ships and planes, or both, to guarantee safe shipment of grain from Odesa to reach Bosporus, without russia intervening,” — Landsbergis summarized.

russia wants Ukraine to accept concessions and give away its territories

russia started to actively promote their message that for the sake of peace and ending the war, Ukraine needs to give away the territories occupied by russia. The key mouthpiece is the president’s spokesperson, dmitriy peskov, who said live on the “Mayak” radio, according to “Ukrayinska Pravda”, that moscow expected from Kyiv to accept their requirements, including russia’s claims for the occupied territories.

Ukraine rejected the idea. Our country is not going to make territorial concessions. It will keep fighting and reclaim all the temporarily occupied territories. President Zelensky said this during the Ukrainian Breakfast Discussion in Davos, when he joined via a video conference.

“When Ukraine says that we will keep fighting and reclaim all our territories – it only means one thing: that we will keep fighting and reclaim all our territories. There are no other implications. It is about independence and sovereignty. This stage of bloody war may shift into a diplomatic domain of negotiations in a certain format, engaging presidents of RF and Ukraine, and two or more of our strategic partners,” — he said.

At the same time, in the interview to the NOS Dutch channel, according to Цензор.НЕТ, the President said that he does not believe that Ukraine may reclaim all the occupied territories through combat, as hundreds of thousands of people may be lost. In order to reclaim all territories, negotiations will be required.

“We can fight the rf, but certainly not until the last man. They might not care, but I do care. If we resume the line as of February, 24, I am certain that russia will sit at the negotiating table. We are not ready to give away Crimea and Donbass to the russian federation,” — added the head of state.

However, the idea of concessions at the cost of Ukrainian sovereignty is popular not only in russia but also among some western politicians and analysts. In fact, shortly before, Zelensky made a hard-hitting statement that the French President, Emmanuel Macron, offered to him to accept certain concessions as regards sovereignty, in order to help putin save his face. Zelensky rejected the idea, the same as a similar proposal from the US ex-Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger.

The idea of “saving face for putin” was also criticized by Dmytro Kuleba, during the Davos forum. In particular, he said that the appeasing strategy to make concessions for putin failed after 2014, and has no chance to succeed. “Eight years of this strategy resulted into missiles striking Kyiv, and in the bloodshed in Donbas,” — the Minister said.

According to Kuleba, if politicians really want to stop the war, they must support Ukraine and help it win. “I realize that politicians find it difficult to admit the fallacy of their policy and its failure. But I have the following message: it failed once, and it will fail again, and it will not stop the war,” — added the Foreign Minister.

Sovereignty concessions are not going to stop the war, also according to the negotiation group member, advisor of the President, Mykhaylo Podoliak. The politician said that the shortest way to stop the war is to supply Ukraine with weapon, and to provide financial support, as well as gas and oil embargo.

“Ukraine is not trading in its sovereignty, to let somebody fill their pockets. The shortest road to stop the war is weapons, money, and embargo,” — said Podoliak.

Mykhaylo Podoliak also explained that any freezing means protracting the war. It will be larger scale, more bloody, and more prepared on the aggressor’s part who are going to do their error analysis. “By the way, we did our error analysis, too. Ukraine learned its lessons from the Minsk Agreements, that is why we will not go for any Minsk-3,” — added the advisor of the head of the Presidential Office.

Ukraine is Actively Lobbying for Supplies of Western Weapons, russia Is Raging

On May, 23, a second meeting of Defense Ministers of over 40 countries took place, in a format initiated on April, 26, on the Ramstein air base. During the meeting, about 20 countries offered new packages of military assistance for Ukraine, as informed by the Pentagon chief, Lloyd Austin.

According to the Ukrainian Defense Minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, following this meeting, Ukraine will receive anti-ship missiles Harpoon to reinforce coastal defense and “other pleasant surprises that will increase the capacity of the Ukrainian Army, and will be unpleasant for the enemy.”​

Oleksiy Reznikov was not specific about the “pleasant surprises.” However, in the end of the week, WSJ and other US mass media reported that, according to their own sources, the USA approved the delivery of multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) for Ukraine. These are the mobile artillery systems that may reach farther than any other similar artillery system currently in possession of Ukraine. It is also expected that the USA will forward to Ukraine the high mobility artillery rocket systems known as HIMARS. These are light multiple rocket launchers with the same range as MLRS. However, unlike the MLRS that uses the chain tracks, HIMARS use the wheeled undercarriage. With the help of these systems, Ukrainian army will be able to strike enemy targets up to 64 km away.

For your information, these systems have been repeatedly requested by Ukraine to bring closer the victory. For example, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine can rely on four letters only – they are MLRS.

The possible delivery of artillery systems for Ukraine triggered an angry response in the rf, who again invented the stories about neo-Nazis in Ukraine. Thus, Russian foreign minister, sergey lavrov, said that supplies of weapons for Ukraine with the capacity to reach rf territory will be a step for the unacceptable escalation.

“We warned the West in most serious way that they are already waging the proxy-war with the rf, through the hands, bodies, and brains of Ukrainian neo-Nazis, but it will be a serious step towards an unacceptable escalation. I hope that people with common sense that have still remained in the West realize that,” — Lavrov said without even blushing.

Mykhaylo Podoliak, the advisor of the Presidential Office, found the russias’ response rather funny; he said in his Telegram that russians fell into hysterics after getting multiple reports about providing Ukraine with the multiple-launch rocket systems. According to him, it is another evidence to their efficiency.

Civil Network OPORA created an online tool "War Speeches" to track the official positions and a public discourse of the occupier state on the course of war against Ukraine and forecasting future aggressive plans of the rf. The monitoring focused on statements and speeches delivered by officials from the occupying state, as well as on official documents of government institutions. In addition to a detailed timeline of public positions presented on the website, we offer weekly analytical summaries of key changes in public rhetoric of the parties to the military confrontation.