Civil Network OPORA has launched a large-scale campaign of monitoring special elections of MPs of Ukraine, which will take place on 26^th October, 2014 and will include both a long-term and short-term observation. In such a way, there will be 213 observers involved in monitoring during the whole election period (one observer per each single-mandate election district). On election day, the organisation will mobilise over 2000 activists for parallel vote tabulation on the basis of statistically approved sampling methods. OPORA will systematically inform the society about the flow of the campaign, adherence to the current legislation by the subjects of election process, participation of the officials in the campaign and compliance with international standards of election organisation by all interested parties. A large-scale civil observation aims to prevent violations during the pre-election campaign and avoid abuse during the vote count. Moreover, OPORA will conduct an informational and educational campaign and will provide citizens with legal assistance in order to protect their rights to vote.

Introduction

Special elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine 2014 became a logical continuation of the presidential campaign. Ukrainian parliament of 2012 was elected according to the needs of the presidential branch of power. It did not become an institutionally independent body, which was proved by voting for the so called “dictatorship laws” on 16^th January, as well as by the character of the political dialogue between Victor Yanukovych and other MPs. After the former president was not in office any more, the representativeness of the legislative branch of power has been questioned by the society itself. According to sociological research, more than 70% of people were in favour of the pre-term parliamentary elections, expecting that they will help to “reload” the parliament.  Outdated political representation of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, military operations in separate regions of Donetsk and Lugansk provinces, insufficient amount of reforms, - all of these events gave political stimulus for the dissolution of the parliament. The coalition breakdown, when UDAR and AUU Svoboda political fractions left the coalition, gave the formal ground for Presidential decree about early resignation of Verkhovna Rada. The practical objective of the elections is “political lustration” of the legislative branch, creation of a new parliamentary coalition that will include several new political powers and improve parliament’sefficiency.

Unfortunately, the electoral system has not been reformed. According to it, 225 parliamentarians will be elected with the help of closed lists of political parties, and 213 MPs (an optimistic forecast) in single-mandate majoritarian election districts. OPORA has to admit, that the absence of political will and understanding of the electoral system with open regional lists has led to the conservation of the legislation, which has not been timely reformed. Prior to the beginning of the election campaign, most of the political fraction used progressive rhetoric regarding the necessity to adapt “new rules of the game”, however, there were no practical steps introduced that could demonstrate readiness for new elections. Parties did not revise the administration and decision-making systems, which would mark preparedness of politicians for a new quality of elections. None of the registered bills concerning new electoral system has ever been considered in the plenary hall.

On 26^th October voting will not take place on the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and in the city of Sevastopol (12 constituencies). According to the preliminary forecasts of OPORA observers, elections can be held in all population centers of only one constituency in Lugansk province and 8 constituencies of Donetsk province. Activity of the regular army of the Russian Federation as well as armed terrorist groups will hinder citizens from full enjoyment of their rights to vote. However, there are no reasons not to recognize the elections so far.  According to the Main Law of Ukraine about the constitutional composition of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine[1], –  there are 450 MPs in the parliament, but the legislative body is authorised[2]  only in case of electing not less than 2/3 from it (300 MPs). It is necessary to organise by-election, as soon as the military operation is over on the territory, which is today controlled by terrorist organisations supported by regular army of the Russian Federation.

OPORA observers have analysed how district election commissions are formed as well as the unofficial start of the election campaign, before the Central Election Commission (CEC) has registered most of the candidates. It is necessary to point out, that CEC is working in the framework of its powers that are granted by law and avoids any conflicts. Creation of DEC complied with the current legislation, though, provided those parties participating in elections that have registered the candidate lists during the last elections with illogical benefits. In such a way, some of “technical parties”, whose manipulative participation in elections was documented by international missions and Ukrainian observers in 2012, again have certain advantages in this type of commissions. As of 10^th September, 61 % of DEC members represent parties, that took nominal part in 2012 elections and got, on average, less than 1% of public support. OPORA has attentively analysed this procedure, DEC composition and its first meetings that will be later discussed in this report in details.

Observers studied campaigning activity of the candidates at this stage of election campaign and noted its local intensity. Political agreements and negotiations regarding party lists, future parliamentary coalitions and composition of the government delayed a full-fledged beginning of the elections on behalf of party representatives, however, it gives certain advantages to self-nominated majority candidates, who are working in the constituencies in their neighbourhood.

 The biggest threats, which should be reported about, are populism and illegal sources (bribing of voters, shadow financing, etc.).

CREATION OF DEC DURING SPECIAL ELECTIONS OF MPS OF UKRAINE

Creation of DEC, during special elections of MPs of Ukraine, is characterised by several procedural and chronological features. Because of limited time used for preparation for voting, subjects of electoral process of 2014 did not have an opportunity to form the composition of DEC. Registration of the candidates in national constituency and in single-mandate electoral districts is to be finished on 30^th September. At the same time DEC was created in accordance with calendar plan of elections on 5^th September.

Taking into account these circumstances, only two subjects are allowed to register their candidatures in DEC legally: political parties, whose parliamentary fractions are registered in Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine of the current calling (AUU Batkivshchyna, AUU Svoboda, UDAR, and the Party of Regions); political parties, whose candidates were registered in the national constituency at the last scheduled elections of the MPs of Ukraine on 28^th October, 2012 (21 party, taking into account judicial prohibition of the activity of “Russian Bloc” political party). In such a way, the participants of the previous election campaign, who, in most cases, did not receive parliamentary representation in 2012, will mostly form the composition of DEC.

CEC, while complying with all legislative terms and procedures, created DECs in 213 constituencies[3]. According to the Law of Ukraine “About granting the rights and freedoms to legal order on temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine” there were no DECs created in 10 constituencies of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (№ 1-10) and 2 constituencies of Sevastopol city (№ 224-225)[4].

Creation of DEC during special elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine was legal and was not followed by any conflicts, but the political influence within the commissions was still not transparent. Uninfluential subjects of the electoral process of 2012 pattern participating in forming DEC, are running the potential risk that their quotas will be used in the interests of more influential political players. According to OPORA, political forces, which in 2012 could not overcome the electoral threshold (Natalia Korolevska’s “Ukraine - Forward!” party received the biggest support among them at that time – 1,58%) today take 61% of seats in the newly formed DEC.

Enlisting candidates into DEC

During special elections of MPs of Ukraine, DEC included a head, a deputy head, a secretary and other commission members, who amounted to not fewer than twenty and not more than eighteen persons[1].

The Law of Ukraine “On Elections of People's Deputies of Ukraine” granted AUU Batkivshchyna, UDAR, the Party of Regions and AUU Svoboda, who have political fractions in the current parliamentary calling the right to nominate one candidate to each of 213 constituencies. On condition of compliance with the requirements to the members of election commissions, the candidates from these parliamentary parties were included into the composition of DEC on a mandatory basis (without a draw procedure). At the same time, AUU Batkivshchyna, UDAR, the Party of Regions and AUU Svoboda could nominate the candidates not only as parliamentary parties, but had the right to claim additional representation in commissions on the basis of the rights of the subject of the electoral process 2012.

Political parties, who nominated their candidates in the national constituency in 2012, had the opportunity to register one candidate in every DEC. These candidates were included in the composition of DEC in accordance with a Draw procedure, approved by CEC resolution from 25.04.2013 № 87[2] (with amendments, introduced by the resolution from 27.08.2014 р. № 813[3]). In national constituency of 2012, candidates from 22 parties were running in elections. Considering the prohibition of the activity of “Russian Bloc” party, that was calling for the breakdown of constitutional order and violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, the number of parties[4] which could register their candidates in DEC during pre-term elections has decreased to 21.

Enlisting candidates into DEC took place from 28^th August to 2^nd September 2014 inclusively. In certain cases CEC did not consider the nomination of candidates from several political parties, or decided to turn down their candidature for enlisting into DEC. Namely, CEC did not consider the application from the political party “Solidarity of Women of Ukraine”, as this political force did not nominate candidates in 2012 in the national constituency and does not have a political fraction in the current parliamentary calling[5]. At the same time nomination of the candidates in DEC’s composition № 1-10, 224-225 (AR Crimea and Sevastopol) from Oleg Lyashko’s Radical party was not considered at all, as it was impossible to hold the elections on the temporarily occupied territories[6]. Because of an application of the political party “People’s Labour Union of Ukraine” that was signed by an inappropriate person, CEC declined 225 DEC candidates and also appealed to the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine about the indication of crime and other infringement of the law[7]. This political force repeated its application and managed to register its candidates in DEC.      

There were also cases when persons, who were previously included in the parties’ nomination lists, did not provide any written agreement to work in DEC (the Communist Party of Ukraine, the Liberal Party of Ukraine, the Green Party of Ukraine, Natalia Korolevska’s “Ukraine - Forward!” party, the Party of Pensioners of Ukraine, political force “Native Motherland”, “People’s Labour Union” “The Our Ukraine”, UDAR, Oleg Lyashko’s Radical party, Ukrainian Party “Green Planet”) or cases of multiple inclusion of candidates from different subjects of application (the Liberal Party of Ukraine, Natalia Korolevska’s “Ukraine - Forward!” party, UDAR, Oleg Lyashko’s Radical party). The applications included state officials and representatives of local authorities (the Party of Pensioners of Ukraine). In total there were 293 DEC candidatures declined from various political forces.

Creation of DEC

If there are applications for nomination from political parties, which have parliamentary fractions in the current Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, one candidate from each party is included into the composition of DEC.

After mandatory quotas were filled by parliamentary parties, CEC organised a draw procedure for the applications of political parties, which in 2012 nominated their candidates in the national constituency. In order to hold this draw procedure, the list of candidates was made in an alphabetical order, separately for each DEC (with indication of a sequence number of every person). At the same time the number of draws equalled the biggest quantity of candidatures that were suggested for enlisting in the composition of DEC. The sequence of inclusion of the candidates in DEC was determined by the established order of priorities in the draw procedure. Unlike the scheduled elections of MPs of Ukraine in 2012, when the draw procedure determinedthe sequence of political parties regarding the  inclusion of their candidates simultaneously to all district election commissions, today’s procedure secured more uniformity in the representation of different subjects[8].

According to the draw results, among 21 political parties and submitted applications from 4 parliamentary parties, the following parties will have the largest number of DEC representatives: UDAR (363 people), the Party of Regions of Ukraine (355), AUU Svoboda (352) and AUU Batkivschyna (344). Whereas these parties will have the smallest number of DEC representatives: “Right Sector” (59 people), political union “Native Motherland” – 90 and the Party of Pensioners of Ukraine – 109 (see table 1). The share of senior management in DEC (a head, a deputy head and a secretary) for every political party was determined by the quantity of candidates that had been included from each of them into these commissions[9].

Personal composition of DEC formed on 5^th September 2014 is currently changing. On 9 – 10^th September CEC has adopted a resolution on changes in DEC composition[10]. Namely, the resolution № 884 from 9^th September has changed 6 members of different commissions. OPORA observers forecast that these decisions mark only the beginning of traditional rotations of DEC members.

Granting authority to district election commissions

According to the article 33 of the Law of Ukraine “On Elections of People's Deputies of Ukraine” DECs have to hold their first meetings not later than on the third day after their creation. Thus, 8^th September was the deadline for organising DEC meetings.

Most of DECs held their first meetings on time. On average, not less than 70 % of DEC members attended the commissions’ meetings. All DEC members who were present at the meeting took an oath of allegiance. During this procedure, there were frequent misunderstandings regarding the way of taking an oath, as according to the article 36 of the Law, a member of the commission should personally take an oath and later sign its written version. At the same time DEC members considered that it was appropriate just to sign the text of oath without reading it personally.

In Donetsk and Lugansk provinces a comprehensive organisation of DEC work is already complicated at this stage; therefore commissions do not fully comply with the legal procedure. Two DECs in Donetsk province (№ 49 і 59) could not hold their first meeting during the period of first three daysdefined by the law. Other commissions in Donetsk region (namely DECs № 46, 47, 50, 57, 58, 59) worked and took an oath despite the lack of quorum. According to the article 33 of the Law of Ukraine “On Elections of People's Deputies of Ukraine” the DEC meeting is authorised in case of presence of more than 50 % of its members (10 to 18 people). Article 31 of the Law says that DEC is granted authority only when not less than 2/3 of its minimal compositiontook an oath (2/3 from 12 people, or 8 people). Whereas at the first meeting of DEC № 58 only 2 people could participate, DEC № 57 – 4 people, DEC № 50 – 8 people, DEC № 46 and 47 – 9 people each. In Lugansk province, DECs № 106, 107, 112 did not manage to hold their first meetings because of the lack of quorum. Only 5 people attended the meetings of each of these commissions. Only DEC № 113 (town of Svatove) in Lugansk province was unproblematic.DEC № 179 in Kharkiv province had to repeat its first meeting, also because of lack of quorum. DEC № 126 in Lviv province, DEC № 138 in Odessa province and DEC № 67 in Zhytomyr province had no quorum as well.

In general, low attendance of commission members became the main problem in the course of holding the first DEC meetings. Despite this, according to the Law (subsection 9, article 36) a member of election commission is obliged to participate in DEC meetings. According to the general data collected by the observers of the Civil Network OPORA, 25% from the total amount of DEC members (including senior management) did not participate in the first meeting of the district election commissions. Most undisciplined were the members of the political party “Greens” – 69% of DEC members from this party (97 people from 141) did not appear at the first meeting of the commission. The Socialist Party of Ukraine is on the list after them (43% of its members did not attend the first DEC meetings), Oleg Lyashko’s Radical party (had 41% of non-attendance) and the Party of Pensioners of Ukraine (40% of non-attendance).

Political party Ukrainian platform “SOBOR” had the smallest number of absentees - 15% of its DEC members did not attend the first meeting. The main reasons of absence of the commission members at the first meeting, was their refusal to participate in the meeting or incorrect contact details of these people (incorrect or outdated telephone numbers). Same as in previous years, the situation repeats, when the applications for DEC membership are submitted without informing the people, whose data was previously sent to CEC. Therefore, we can expect many alterations in the DEC composition, which might change by at least a quarter. Observers did not identify any cases when DEC members were deliberately not informed about the first meetings of commissions.

It was reported that state officials and representatives of the local authorities were frequently present at the first DEC meetings. The main reason for their attendance was to inform about preparation of the material and technical base in order to ensure the work of DEC. In all reported cases, commissions allowed the local officials to attend the DEC meetings.

On the whole, the first DEC meetings were rather short and did not cause any conflict or other emergency situations. With the exception of instances, when some people were not admitted to the commission meetings, those people who had actually the right to attend (reported in Odessa, Rivne and Zaporizhzhya provinces).

Material and technical supply for the election commissions is unsatisfactory at the moment. There are problems connected with insufficient placement (the quarters of more than 30 DECs did not comply with the CEC requirements). The first meetings of several commissions took place not in accordance with the official DEC address, but in other buildings that were temporarily allocated by the local authorities. Most of DECs have no signboards. A large number of commissions do not have telephone connection, Internet, office equipment, furniture, and stationery. It is caused by the fact, that at this stage of electoral process, local authorities have not managed to create appropriate conditions for the DEC works, and, in its turn, DEC have not received financial support for purchasing necessary items.

Conclusions

Creation of DEC during special elections of the MPs of Ukraine was done according to the requirements of the Law of Ukraine “On Elections of People's Deputies of Ukraine”. CEC complied with the principles of political independence and objective consideration of the political parties’ applications. Subjects, who had the right to form election commissions, ensured enlisting the candidates into DEC compositionon the appropriate level. At the same time, the dominance of uninfluential parties will provoke the division of the commissions into informal majority and informal minority, depending on the agreements reached between the real participants of the elections.

Despite the time limits, almost all commissions managed to hold their first meetings within the allocated time. The most problematic issue was a low attendance of DEC members at the first meetings, caused by irresponsible attitudes of political parties, who are subjects of the electoral process and are involved in the selection of the DEC candidates.

Recommendations

To Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

• To envisage in the Law of Ukraine “On Elections of People's Deputies of Ukraine” the right of subjects of future pre-term elections to be included into DECs, despite the time when the commission was formed or the time when candidates were registered (by restaffing some parts of the DEC composition)
• To introduce intensive programmes for increasing the competence of representatives of  the law enforcement authorities in electoral issues;
• To establish an effective system of reacting on electoral legislation abuse, prevent electoral fraud and bribing voters.

Table 1. «Representation of political parties in the district election commissions during parliamentary elections»[11].

PRE-ELECTION CAMPAIGNING IN THE REGIONS

Pre-term elections of the MPs of Ukraine have intensified the processes of reforms within the party, creation of pre-election alliances and changes in senior composition of political powers. Nominating candidates for the MPs of Ukraine started on 28^th August, but as of 10^th September CEC did not yet register any electoral list of candidates from political parties. This leisurely pace of the parties is explained by dynamic time frame of pre-term election campaigning and long-lasting political transformations after the presidential elections of 2014.

Self-nominated candidates were most active in terms of official registration. 69 candidates registered themselves in single-mandate election districts, among them only one person was nominated by a party (the largest number of candidates[12] was registered in Odessa province – 14, Donetsk, Zakarpattya, and Lugansk – 4). According to the Law of Ukraine “On Elections of People's Deputies of Ukraine” the election campaign of the candidate begins on the next day after CEC has made a decision to register him/her. Thus, currently, only the candidates that have been registered in single-mandate election districts started their election campaign. Despite the absence of the official status of the subject of electoral process, political parties, de-facto began their election campaign. According to OPORA observers, election activity of the parties is not proportional in various regions. It depends on preparedness of the election headquarters and consensus of interests of local political groups regarding the participation in the election campaign.

The election campaigns of parties in Kirovograd, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Odessa and Zhytomyr provinces are characterised by high activity. In these regions the majority of the constituencies have indications of election campaigning, and one or more parties are using various forms of campaigning. Parties with the most intensive start of the election campaigning in the regions are: the party “Strong Ukraine” (Zaporizhzhya, Zhytomyr provinces) and AUU “Batkivschyna” (Kherson, Odessa provinces). The Party of Development of Ukraine has actively begun its campaigning in Kirovograd province.

In Vinnitsa, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Khmelnytsk, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk provinces, the city of Kyiv and other regions election campaigning is not as intense. The indications of the start of the campaigning are present only in separate districts of these regions.

OPORA observers note, that election campaigning (in various forms and with different intensity) has been started by 10 parties: AUU “Batkivshchyna”, AUU “Svoboda”, “Strong Ukraine”, the Party of Development of Ukraine, “Civic Position”, the Left-wing Bloc, the party “Self-aid”. In certain regions the following political parties became more active: “Justice” (Chernivtsi province), “Just Ukraine” (Dnipropetrovsk province), Nataliya Korolevska’s “Ukraine – Forward!” party (Donetsk province), All-Ukrainian Agrarian Union “Zastup” (Zhytomyr province).

According to OPORA’s data, the absolute majority of the parties are currently using outdoor advertising (billboards, city lights, posters, etc.), which is explained by the intention of the political forces to inform the voters about their own plans to run the elections in Ukrainian parliament. In some regions the ATL advertising of the parties appeared (publications, announcements, speeches, news items) – Kirovograd province.

Registered or potential majoritarian candidates from the parties “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko”, “UDAR”, AUU “Batkivshchyna”, AUU “Svoboda”, the Party of Regions, the Party of Development of Ukraine, Oleg Lyashko’s Radical party, “Strong Ukraine”, “Civic Position”,the party “Self-aid” have already launched their election campaigning. For instance, the following candidates have started the campaigning: Vitalyi Hrushevskyi (DEC № 101, Kirovograd province, the Party of Regions), Andriy Puilov (DEC № 183, Kherson province, “UDAR”), Andriy Gamov (Zaporizhzhya, “Strong Ukraine”), Ivan Vasyunyk (DEC № 117, Lviv province, AUU “Batkivshchyna”), Sergiy Kaplin (DEC № 144, Poltava province, “UDAR”), Dmytro Svyatash (DEC № 170, Kharkiv province, the Party of Regions), Igor Syabiy (DEC № 189, Khmelnitsky province, AUU “Svoboda”) Vladyslav Antroshenko (DEC № 206, Chernigiv province, “Bloc of Petro Poroshenko”), Yuriy Levchenko (DEC № 223, Kyiv, AUU “Svoboda”) and others.

Registered or potential self-nominated candidates began the election campaigning in most of the constituencies of the country. For example, in DEC№ 102 (Kirovograd province) the former secretary of Kyiv city council Oles Dovgyi becomes active; DEC № 16 (Vinnitsa province) – former member of the Communist Party of Ukraine, a Ukrainian MP Oksana Kaletnyk; DEC № 98 (Kyiv province) a Ukrainian MP Sergiy Mishchenko; DEC № 135 (Odessa province) – a Ukrainian MP Sergiy Kivalov; DEC№ 66 (Zhytomyr province) – Vitaliy Zhuravskyi and others.

After official registration of the election lists of the political parties and candidates in the single-mandate election districts, their campaigning is limited by a number of laws. For instance, Ukrainian law considers the following issues as indirect bribing of the voters[13]: election campaigning and providing voters, institutions, organisations and election commissions and their members with money, or goods, services, works, securities, credits, lottery tickets and other tangible properties on concessional terms, that are followed by campaigning for or against certain political party or candidate running in parliamentary elections of Ukraine, or mentioning the name of the party or  a candidate. It is prohibited to use the premises of state and local authorities for election campaigning at the cost of the money from election funds of the parties and candidates of single-mandate districts; it is also not allowed to place campaigning materials and political advertisement on the buildings belonging to state authorities as well as in the transport, etc.

As it was demonstrated by the parliamentary elections of 2012, proportional-majoritarian electoral system scatters public attentionand potential of the civic control over the subjects of electoral process between local campaigns in the districts. It creates potential conditions for abuse on behalf of the candidates, bribing voters in separate districts, using administrative resource and other improper technologies. Because of this, the law enforcement authorities should demonstrate new standards of reacting on electoral legislation abuse, which will foster social and international recognition of the election results.

Recommendations

To the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine

• To introduce intensive programmes for increasing the competence of representatives of  the law enforcement authorities in electoral issues;
• To establish an effective system of reacting on electoral legislation abuse, prevent electoral fraud and bribing voters.

PRE-TERM ELECTIONS OF THE MPs OF UKRAINE IN THE REGIONS WITH UNFAVOURABLE MILITARY AND POLITICAL SITUATION

Successive aggression of Russian Federation forces Ukraine to solve unprecedented problems regarding the reestablishment of the constitutional order on its territory and providing security to its own citizens, also in terms of holding national elections.

On 14^th April 2014, Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine granted to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol the status of temporarily occupied territory. Because of that, it was necessary to admit that holding national and local elections on these territories was impossible[1]. Thus, establishment of Russian political regime in AR Crimea and Sevastopol took away the right to vote during pre-term elections of the President of Ukraine on 25^th May 2014 from most (out of 1 million 810 thousand) of Ukrainian citizens who live on these territories.

Same violation of electoral rights of Ukrainian citizens will repeat at pre-term elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on 26^th October 2014, as legally and practically it is impossible to hold elections on annexed territories.

The activity of Russian military units and terrorist organisations on the territories of Donetsk and Lugansk provinces made it impossible for many voters from these regions to participate in pre-term elections of the President of Ukraine. Taking into account the scope of terrorist activity, citizens could vote on 25^th May 2014 at only 8 out of 22 election districts of Donetsk province (in practice, the results were estimated at only 25% of all polling stations of the region). In Lugansk province the pre-term elections of the President of Ukraine were held only at 2 out of 12 election districts (the results were estimated at only 14% of all polling stations of the region).

Pre-term elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in Donetsk and Lugansk provinces are followed by similar security challenges. Because of aggressive plans of Russia, it is unrealistic to foresee the possibility of the growing tensions. Despite the success of Anti-Terrorist Operation, that was observed before the public intrusion of regular Russian military units, the largest part of the voters from Donetsk and Lugansk provinces can again face impudent impediment to their electoral rights.

There were 32 single-mandate election districts formed (21 – Donetsk province, 11 – Lugansk province)during pre-term elections of the MPs of Ukraine in Donetsk and Lugansk provinces. According to OPORA estimates, as of 10.09.2014 only in 9 out of 32 election districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions it is realistically possible to hold elections at all polling stations or in all populated centres.

OPORA observers analysed military, political, security and administrative situation in Donetsk and Lugansk provinces and divided all election districts into three groups 1) districts, where it is potentially possible to hold elections at all polling stations and populated centres; 2) districts, where the situation is still unclear, or voting can be held only at some polling stations/some populated centres; 3) districts, where voting cannot be forecasted at all.

Based on results of information analysis received from the long-term observers, OPORA came to the following conclusions (see infographics as of 10.09.2014):

Donetsk province

• Only in 8 out of 21 election districts of Donetsk province it is possible to hold elections at all polling stations/in all populated centres that are included in the district (DECs№ 46,  47, 48, 49, 50, 57  58, 59).  In stable election districts of Donetsk province 39 % voters of the region are registered and 40% of all polling stations are formed;
• In three election districts of Donetsk province the situation is still unclear or as of 10.09.2014 there is a possibility of holding the voting in some populated centres of the districts (DECs№ 45, 52, 60). On the whole, in the districts with unclear situation, including populated centres, which are still occupied by terrorists, 15% of voters are registered and 16% of polling stations are formed in the region. The possibility of holding the voting procedure in some of the polling stations of these districts is rather hypothetical, as populated centres, which are under governmental control, are actually in the line of fire. Perspectives for holding elections will grow if there is a long-term cease-fire or there is no threat of the attacks of Russian and terrorist military units;
• 10 election districts of Donetsk are under complete control of terrorist organisations, which at the moment makes it impossible to hold elections at all (DECs№ 41, 42, 43, 44, 51, 53, 54, 55, 56, 61). It comprises approximately 47% of voters of Donetsk region or 44% of all polling stations.

Lugansk province

• Out of 11 electoral districts of Lugansk, only one has favourable conditions for holding the elections in all populated centres/and all polling stations (DEC №113). Approximately 9 % of the voters of the region are registered, or 13% of polling stations are openedin this district.
• In five election districts that comprise 44 % of all voters of Lugansk province or 40 % of all polling stations of the region, elections can be potentially held only in some polling stations/some populated centres (DECs№ 105, 106, 107, 112, 114). Same as in Donetsk province, this possibility will preserve only if the military operations are stopped as well as offensive actions of terrorists are prevented;
• Almost 47% of voters in Lugansk province are registered in 5 election districts, which are completely under the terrorists’ control (DECs№ 104, 108, 109, 110, 111).

In such a way, almost half of the voters of Donetsk and Lugansk provinces reside in the districts, which are under complete control of illegal military units. Currently this data is optimistic from the point of view of securing citizens’ electoral rights in practice, as electoral districts with unclear situation are not counted here.

Recommendations

To state and local authorities, law enforcement authorities of Ukraine and Central Election Commission

• To introduce the system of continuous monitoring in unstable regions in order toappropriately consider all security risks during pre-term parliamentary elections (also to prevent uncontrolled processes connected with proper functioning of election commissions in dangerous conditions[1]);
• To increase the coordinating role of CEC in the issues of functioning of election commissions in Donetsk province, also with the help of establishing special hotlines;
• To elaborate and implement national and regional plans of securing legal order during elections;
• To implement informational and motivational campaign (with no party affiliation) regarding participation in voting procedure by residents of Donetsk and Lugansk cities and regions, who were liberated from illegal military units.
• To facilitate the procedure of temporary change of voting place without alteration of election address for the residents of Donetsk and Lugansk provinces, considering the practices, which were applied for the residents of Crimea.

To Central Election Commission

• To facilitate the procedure of temporary change of voting place without alteration of election address for the residents of Donetsk and Lugansk provinces, considering the practices, which were applied for the residents of Crimea.

To Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

• To introduce changes in the Law of Ukraine “On Elections of People's Deputies of Ukraine” in the context of improving the opportunities for the law enforcement authorities to establish legal order during the elections.