In contrast to politicians, most politologists can give adequate assessment to candidates and are aware of all pitfalls of the election campaign. Tetiana Nikolaeva - PhD, politologist, Head of the Political Science Department of Zaporizhzhya National University - is one of those few in the town who can professionally and independently evaluate the course of elections. OPORA have met with Ms. Tetiana and learned about "the trumps" of new politicians, Europeanness of Ukrainian parties, and expectations from the Parliamentary elections.
Which parties have nominated the strongest and most popular candidates in Zaporizhia oblast - oppositional or pro-governmental (the Party of Regions)?
I doubt if there are new popular names which are able to draw the attention of voters. All politicians are the same, as well as their words and behavior. Vitalii Klychko is seemingly a new person in politics, but to my mind he is a boxer, not a politician. His 11-12 percent of popularity is determined by the fact that he is a famous sportsman and a new politician. If the party was named not so aggressively - UDAR ("Punch") - he would probably have got higher rating.
The Communist party has risen in popularity to a great extent. This party wasn't involved in any corruption scheme or scandal, and therefore is gaining votes. Rating of the PR has lowered, but not considerably. Talking about the United Opposition, it is still famous of its failures, therefore receives less support. I don't think that the Forward Ukraine party leader Nataliia Korolevska is a constructive politician, therefore I think that the famous businessmen has made a mistake when staking on her. She is undoubtedly a powerful economist but not an actress, what is essential for a politician. One must perfectly introduce himself, especially a woman. Ms. Korolevska is constrained, and don't know how to advertise herself, it's her weak side.
There are some candidates-doubles in Zaporizhia oblast, bearing identical or similar surnames to already well-known candidates. For example, there are two Volkovs in the election district #80, a famous candidate from the CPU Yurii Baburin has almost a namesake Mr. Baborin in his district, and Yaroslav Suhyi - an opponent Yurii Suhai. Can it influence the election results?
It is a famous black technology, and creating candidates-doubles is not only about similar names. It is aimed on inattentive people, which can confuse candidates and vote not for whom they want to support. In general, this tactic is already clear to the voters. However, there are a lot of other technologies.
What is your opinion about returning to the mixed proportional majoritarian election system in Ukraine?
I'm still against this system. The argumentation supporting the mixed proportional majoritarian election system is not strong enough to my mind. They say that majoritarian candidates will be closer to the people. But why can't they be close to the people when staying in the party? It depends only on a person – individual conscience, honesty and decency. It would me my greatest content, if there were a lot of such people. However, today returning to this system has only one purpose – to join majoritarian candidates to certain political parties after the elections. Opposition has also voted for this system, I think it will also entice newly-elected candidates. Thus, although this system was chosen for the benefit of parties, not the electorate.
Which peculiarities of political strategy use parties in their campaigns (election program, advertising, image of politicians)? Has something changed since the Presidential elections?
I haven't seen anything new. Perhaps, adoption of the law on languages by the PR was an exclusion. It was made in order to fulfill their promise. Evil tongues were saying, "You can only promise", and they proved that they can do it. However, a wide reaction around this law can harm the opposition, and they started talking about the split of Ukraine again. Here I should mention that any to some extent principle decision can possibly split Ukraine.
There is a thought, that in these Parliamentary elections participate most of "poor" politicians. Is it possible that the mind but not money will win this time?
It's not about the mind, any campaign will cost a lot. In fact, the democracy isn't cheap at all. It requires advertising, meetings with voters, good deeds which will represent a candidate etc. That's why we shouldn't think negative of a politician if he's rich. If money help worthy politician to come to the power, it is great. But if a good person is unknown to the electorate, it's impossible to receive many votes.
Where we should anticipate majority of falsifications – in single-member districts or party lists?
Voters are used to anticipate falsifications in any case. It depends where the possibility to falsify will be present. However, sometimes I think we overestimate this evil...
Do you think there will be more issues which can split the country before the elections?
The matter is, even neutral issues can be interpreted as those which can split the country today.
Will candidates from Zaporizhia oblast switch from oppositional parties to pro-power after the elections?
As soon as opposition will become in power, it will use similar tactic to those used by the Party of Regions today. Do you remember the Our Ukraine party congress after the Orange revolution? The CPSU (Communist Party of the Soviet Union) is far behind it in the scale... Today, what have left from the Our Ukraine? Nothing! If tomorrow will happen something similar, there will start mass defection from opposition to the power and later - conversely. It’s not so easy to remove such culture once it was formed. We will need some time for that...
Are there some parties in Ukraine which are close to European standards?
All parties in Ukraine are of quite European standards. On one hand, all of them, as well as in Europe, are held by party leaders which prepare party to the elections, lead it. Our parties are "pre-ideological" as well as European. None of Ukrainian parties has a distinct ideology for today. Their purpose is - "to catch votes", to believe any words.
On the other hand, the difference between our parties and European is that they propagate the idea of split of the country on Eastern and Western, what is contrary to the politician traditions. European leaders fight quite actively and aggressively, but they have opinion which is not quite applicable in Ukraine – after the elections begins normal life. We have a new stage of war after every election – the opposition tries to "discharge" the party in power, refuses to support reasonable bills, and the power ignores the opposition. That's why Ukrainian political culture is lower than European.
People talk that there will be a second round due to illegitimacy. Is there such a threat?
I give 99,9% that the elections will be considered as legitimate in any case. However, there will be no second round, no matter what people say.
Reference:
Civic monitoring conducted by OPORA - is a type of network activity, aimed at impartial assessment of the preparation and conduct of elections, as well as preventing violations through comprehensive civic action. Professional monitoring at all stages of the election process indirectly influences the quality of the campaign. The public opinion, both foreign and domestic is formed through gathering and spreading of information among the target audience. From a strategic perspective public monitoring of elections focuses upon improving the system and certain procedures. In 2012, during Parliamentary elections in Ukraine OPORA implements a large-scale campaign of long- and short term observation, organizes a statistical vote-count by the results of voting with the proportional component of the electoral system on a basis of representative selection, will provide 100% coverage of polling stations by observers in separate single-mandate majoritarian districts. OPORA observers will work in all 225 electoral districts, and 3,500 activists will join them on the voting day. Organization will use the latest means of spreading information on observation results, including infographics and interactive maps.