Zhytomyr Oblast: Through the FPP, the same ones will come

Zhytomyr political and media expert Andrii Laktionov says so and speaks about the nature of the current electoral campaign in the majoritarian districts of Zhytomyr Oblast

In Zhytomyr Oblast, in 6 majoritarian districts, 83 candidates for People's Deputies have been registered. With the return of the first-past-the-post voting, some of the voters believe that the Parliament will change for the better, and the deputies will finally start defending the interests of local communities...

Not likely. That is why Ukrainian politicians have helped the authorities to create a pretty powerful filter that it will be able control in a truly manual mode. Everyone who will to join the highest Ukrainian authorities will go through this election filter. The insiders will get through it first thing i.e. all those who are in power and from the authorities. Those who are in the pro-government opposition will also get through this filter.

Modern Ukraine is an 'elitist' state. Those who are in power are the current Ukrainian elite. Yes, not governing but in power. The rest of the Ukrainian public is the people. There is neither power nor opposition — in Ukraine, there are pro-government forces and pro-government opposition. The so called '"Ukrainian elite", which has its own truth, own rules, own laws, and finally — own country. Who is going for the FPP in Zhytomyr Oblast today? Many of those who want to stay in the Parliament no matter what. In Berdychiv E.D. 63, on the list of registered candidates there are 5 people's deputies, 4 people's deputies — in Malyn (E.D. 66), and 1 in Novohrad-Volynskyi (E.D. 65). Others also want to stay in power — there are the Prime Minister's advisers and heads of the OSA and the RSA.

Whom do you call the "pro-governmental opposition"?

The communists, of course. They, by the way, are second at media presence in Zhytomyr media and outdoor advertising. No one interferes with them. This is not the first electoral campaign when the election district No.64 is called "the red belt" of Zhytomyr Oblast. Currently, there are two competing pro-governmental candidates — the Prime Minister's Adviser Volodymyr Piekhov officially supported by the Party of Regions, and the candidate from KPU, the Head of Zhytomyr Customs – Mykola Tymoshenko. Each of them in the case of victory suits very well both local authorities and the future pro-governmental faction in the Verkhovna Rada.

What are the chances of the real opposition in the 2012 election in our oblast?

As I have already said, there is no real power or real opposition but only the so called "elite". Speaking of the nominees from the United Opposition in the oblast's districts, they are weakly identified as opposition members by the votersFor example, in the E.D. No.62, Hennadii Zubko is a newcomer though he ran for a position of the mayor from the Front for Change in the local elections. His recognition by a local voter is around 30 percent. Because of this, I believe, his party fellow member S. Sukhomlyn, who is running for the party-list election under No.101, at this stage probably stands a better chance to get under the dome of the Ukrainian Parliament. In the E.D. 63, people's deputy Pavlo Zhebrivskyi is also weakly identified by a local voter as an opposition member but as a local, a successful businessman, and the founder of the Kupalski Rosy Festival. He has the highest number of competitors among all the majoritarians – 23! Sydir Kizin from Svoboda (E.D. 67) is another matter. 67). Before registering as a candidate, he had started to fight the "milk mafia" in Chudniv District and did make dairy factories increase the purchase price for milk suppliers. However, will he have enough resources to go through with the matter as he has promised to potential voters back in July? Will the dairy producers of Zhytomyr Oblast agree to boost rating of the Svoboda candidate risking to be out of favour with the local administrations? Characterising the proceedings of the electoral campaign of the opposition members in Zhytomyr at this stage it is just all smiles and sunshine. Voters sometimes simply overlook it and it isn’t identified as opposition. In 2/3 of the districts, it is practically absent. I haven't seen its point under such circumstances. As well as ideological politicians. I see people who need to be in power.

And what about those candidates whom the Party of Regions supported? Since many current, already registered candidates hoped for support of the administrative resource.

Yes, there was a real struggle. There is even a victim – Volodymyr Satsiuk. He has already been a people's deputy from Zhytomyr in 2002. The former Deputy Chief of the SSU, the figure in the scandal of poisoning of President V. Yuschenko, disappeared from the Ukrainian politics in 2005. This is when the information that he left for Russia appeared in the media. This had become one of the main cards of Kyiv Administrative Court of Appeal concerning the recognition the acts of the members of the CEC Sheludko and Mahera as unlawful — the registration of the former First Deputy Chief of the SSU Volodymyr Satsiuk as a candidate for People's Deputy. However, the trial court didn't provide adequate evidence of the fact of Satsiuk's immigration. Given the fact that no one has filed a suit on legality of the registration of A. Shevchenko as a candidate for People's Deputy of the Ukraine — Forward! Party we can talk about selective justice.

Despite V. Satsiuk's expectations to be supported by the PR, he has become a victim of the circular firing squad. Zhytomyr Governor Serhiy Ryzhuk has become the chief majoritarian of the PR in the region in the E.D. 62. By the way, the plaintiff in the case against the registration of V. Satsiuk is Hanna Fedorchenko — the leader of the Youth Party. In 2010, the list of this party in the local elections to Zhytomyr City Council was led by Mykhailo Zastavnyi. He is also registered as a self-nominated candidate in E.D. No.62 though he still hasn't asserted himself in the district in any way. Obviously, this time he has been assigned to the role of a dummy candidate unlike Satsiuk, who has seriously prepared for the run.

The role of a "fall-back" candidate is another trick of the PR. After the party convention, the Head of Zhytomyr Oblast Organisation S. Ryzhuk claimed support to the self-nominated candidate Viktor Razvadovskyi in the E.D. No.67. Then, in the same district, the Head of Chudniv RSA Maksym Samchyk has registered as a candidate of the PR. So both have got support of the ruling party. Samchyk — of the administrative resource, of course, and no one will simply interfere with Razvadovskyi. As with Volodymyr Lytvyn in the E.D. No.65, whom Zhytomyr '"regionals" have supported as well. What they didn't do for other populists. For instance, the people's deputy and leader of Zhytomyr Oblast Organisation of the People's Party Mykola Rudchenko will have to fight a losing battle for a deputy seat with the "regional" Vitalii Zhuravskyi in Malyn E.D. No.66.

Unfortunately, there is a threat of massive fraud associated with the use of the administrative resource, would you predict its occurance in the current majoritarian election?

In my opinion, massive fraud won't be experienced during the election. I.e. any unlawful acts. The Governor of Zhytomyr Oblast, being also the chief "regional" of our oblast, Serhiy Ryzhuk, before the start of the electoral campaign, at the Oblast Conference of the PR has confidently stated that the regionals can count for constitutional majority. The result had been ensured when the new parliamentary law was passed. That is why the so called candidates of the authorities demonstrate such self-confidence — they are using their position and state funds. Now we can see how they are trying to make RECs controllable... The excellence of manipulation has reached such a level that they have been laid at the foundation of the new election law.

So you think the outcome of the election can be already predicted today, don't you?

Yes, considering the latest social research, the pro-government party will get 90 seats (give or take 5) from the lists, the number of majoritarians, who can get into the VR from the PR — 170. Let us calculate — 170+90=260. The number is almost adamant. Then, the regionals offer constructive cooperation in the sake of Ukraine to self-nominated deputies, majoritarians — where they can pull strings, liberal political powers (like the parties UDAR and Ukraine — Forward! if they will get into the Parliament, of course), and the communists, whom the current sociology, amid them being alone on the left electoral wing (the absence of competitors such as the socialists and Lytvyn's people) is predicting all but 10% from the lists. It is easy to see the constitutional majority here — 2/3 of the deputies of the Parliament, namely 300 votes.

may fail?

Unfortunately, it is not likely the VR to be turned around as a result of the current election, at least by the majoritarians. Many majoritarian candidates of Zhytomyr Oblast are the parliamentary old-timers. V. Lytvyn, V. Zhuravskyi, P. Zhebrivskyi, S. Ryzhuk, S. Piskun, V. Razvadovskyi, V. Semeniuk. They have had greater potential already at the start, and better chances to get into the VR again. Unless the new parties of V. Klychko and N. Korolevska, in case of overcoming the election threshold, bring new people there. Whether they will be brand new politicians I am no predictor.

Reference:

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