Potential Lviv’s lobby in the party lists

Last week in the Ukrainian information space was marked by the start of the election races. The political parties commenced their march towards the desired places onHrushevskyi Streetfrom the presentation of the official lists of candidates. Some has even managed to submit these lists to the Central Election Commission during the first days.

The regional elites accepted differently the news about the first week of election campaign, which were coming from the capital. Some were outraged by the impractical place they have gotten, others were simply not included in the list or were not elected as an official candidate in the single mandate district. Those, who were the luckiest, slowly start meeting with voters, organizing concerts or just covering all the billboards around with their portraits and slogans.

In turn, the observers from the Civil Network OPORA have analyzed the lists of the candidates for the deputy's mandates, trying to figure out whether there are candidates from Lviv region. The main question the activists wanted to answer was: How is Lviv region represented in the lists of the main rivals for the places in Verkhovna Rada during the Elections of the People's Deputies of Ukraine 2012? In particular, the observers studied the lists of the Party of Regions, the United opposition the Fatherland, the Communist Party of Ukraine, the All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda, the Union of Patriotic Forces - Our Ukraine, the UDAR and Ukraine-Ahead! political parties.

The Party of Regions: "old-new" faces

If in the single member districts of Lviv region the governing party placed a bet on the little-known "freshmen", then in the list of candidates from Lviv everything is vice versa

If in the single member districts of Lviv region the governing party placed a bet on the little-known "freshmen", then in the list of candidates from Lviv everything is vice versa. In general, among the candidates, who got to top of the list, there are only two, who are connected to Lviv region: the Presidential Advisor Hanna Herman (#13) and current People's Deputy Oleksandr Horoshkevych (#78). Next to them are People's Deputy Ihor Zvarych (#102) and the Head of Lviv oblast organization of the Party of Regions, People's Deputy Petro Pysarchuk (#105), who at the moment are in the part of the list, which is not likely to get to the Parliament.

Hanna Herman is a well known candidate in Lviv region. First of all, due to her frequent appearances on the national TV channels. In contrast, Oleksandr Horoshkevych is not so familiar to the average voter in oblast. His political carreer is best remembered for its swift maneuvers: the Reforms and Order Party, the Our Ukraine party, the Party of Regions. Both candidates, who are likely to win, are not so much worried about keeping in touch with the region and concentrate their activity on the national level.

Ihor Zvarych uses the same tactics, although his chances to get to the Parliament are significantly lower. Despite the coincidence of the name and surname with those of the infamous judge, this member of the Party of Regions has loose connection to Lviv oblast because approximately 40 years ago he moved to Ivano-Frankivsk region... Petro Pysarchuk, who is a famous entrepreneur and politician in the region, rounds out the list of the candidates from Lviv region. At the moment it is hard to say why Petro Ivanovych "succeeded" to get to the place #105 in the list. Most probably it is because of the old conflicts with the new oblast authorities, namely, with the Governor Mykhailo Kostiuk and with Ihor Hreshchuk, who is the Head of faction of the Party of Regions in oblast council. Also, it is important to mention, that all four candidates from the Party of Regions from Lviv have the experience of being a deputy and minimum ten years conduct their political activity. In general, Lviv region is underrepresented in the list of the governing party. Only one candidate out of four constantly keeps in touch with oblast, but he is in a disadvantageous position in the party list. Other candidates are more famous and active on the national level.

The United opposition: from Lviv region but in the bottom of the list

The list of the United opposition Fatherland has more people from Lviv region in comparison with the list of the governing party. In general there are 20 people, who are somehow connected to the region. Moreover, those, who are likely to get to the Parliament and who are not, are equally divided at the moment: 10:10.

The famous journalist and the Head of TV channel TVi - Mykola Kniazhytskyi (originally from Lviv city) is now on top of the list (#11). It is worth mentioning that Kniazhytskyi has already run for the Parliament in 2002 as an independent candidate (samovysuvanets) in the voting district #117, however, he lost in favor of the member of Our Ukraine party - Pavlo Kachur. The next candidate from opposition, who is likely to get to the parliament, is the Advisor of Arsenii Yatseniuk on education issues, the first head of the Ukrainian center for education quality evaluation - Lilia Hrynevych (#14). As the previous candidate she was born in Lviv and at the moment does not maintain close contacts with the region.

The majority on the top of the list from opposition has only loose connection to Lviv region

Under the #20 of the list appears the lawyer of Yulia Tymoshenko - Serhii Vlasenko. Probably not a lot of voters know that this famous politician was also born in Lviv. However, after 1998 he is not a frequent guest in Lviv region. A famous politician Andrii Parubii is got to #21 and is right next to Vlasenko. This candidate is famous both on all-Ukrainian level and on the level of Lviv region. The local political experts were predicting him the possibility to be nominated as a candidate in one of the single member constituencies in Lviv (the voting district #122, Yavoriv city). Under the # 23 is the Head of Lviv brunch of the Front of Change, the Deputy of oblast council and the Head  campaign office  of the United opposition in Lviv region  - Stepan Kubiv. He is well known in the region and together with Parubii could compete for a mandate in the single member constituency.

The next candidate in the list from Lviv is the Head of Mykolaiv oblast organization of the All-Ukrainian Union Fatherland - Roman Zabzaliuk (#31). The only thing that connects him to the region is that it is his place of birth. Under the #53 we see another native of Lviv oblast, former head of State treasury service ofUkraine- Tetiana Sliuz. The current People's Deputy Olena Kondratiuk is under the #60. Ihor Hryniv - an active politician, who used to work in Lviv region, is under the #70. In due time he took part in creation of People's Movement of Ukraine and was the Head of Tovarystvo Leva (Lion's Community). Today in his activity he mainly concentrates on the all-Ukrainian level and rarely visits the region. The People's Deputy Ostap Semerak (#76) rounds out the list of the possible representatives of oblast, who will get to the Parliament.

A famous Lviv activist and politician Andrii Shkil unexpectedly moved to #87. If the situation does not change, he will have to say goodbye to his deputy's mandate. The following candidates, who are connected to Lviv region and are in the bottom of the list, appeared right after Shkil: current People's Deputy Mykola Kovzel (#99), People's Deputy Viktor Ukolov (#110), Deputy of Lviv oblast council from the Front of Change political party Yurii Pidlisnyi (#114), the Deputy Head of the People's Movement of Ukraine and former Mayor of Lviv Vasyl Kuibida (#146), former Head of oblast department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Vasyl Pisnyi (#155), Deputy of Lviv oblast council from  the Front of Change political party Hanna Kostiuk (#164), Deputy of Lviv oblast council from the Front of Change political party Bohdan CHechotka (#167), another Deputy Head of the People's Movement of Ukraine, former Mayor of Kalush city (Ivano-Frankivsk oblast) - Roman Sushko (#176) and the Head of city party organization of the All-Ukraininan Union Fatherland in Novyi Rozdil - Volodymyr Zasanskyi.

In general, the list of the United opposition has more qualitative representation of Lviv region in comparison with the list of the Party of Regions. However, few important nuances should be taken into consideration in order to be able to make such conclusions. The majority on the top of the list from opposition has only loose connection to Lviv region. The candidate could be born and receive education in Lviv region but build his career in Kyiv. That is why it is impossible to talk about 100% representation of the region by the candidate. Instead the majority of the candidates, who are indeed "tied" to the oblast, are in the bottom part of the list and are unlikely to get to the Parliament. This majority include the current deputies of oblast council, heads of rayon party brunches and former Mayor of Lviv. Also, it is important to mention, that 11 candidates from Lviv, who are on the list, already have experience of being a deputy.

All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda: 1/3 is from Lviv region

The list of the All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda includes the biggest number of representatives of Lviv oblast out of all analyzed lists. Taking into account the existing ratings of the political power, we limited our analysis to the first 50 places in the list. And it was enough to understand the general tendency, if to pay attention to the fact that 32% of all analyzed positions belong to the candidates, who are connected to the region.

The first place got the Leader of this political power, Lviv's native, Oleh Tiahnybok. Probably he would manage to win in any single member constituency of oblast, however, as the party leader he has logically chosen to be nominated in the nationwide constituency. We also underline that this candidate has already won in single member constituency in Lviv oblast. It was already twice - in 1998 and2002 inthe election district with center in Busk city. The candidate visits Lviv quite often. Though, in his activity he concentrates more on all-Ukrainian level.

The next candidate in the list is Lviv's native Anatolii Vitiv, who is little-known in his native oblast. He is the Head of faction of the All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda in Volyn oblast council and occupies the position under #5. Right next to him is the Head of Lviv oblast council Oleh Pankevych. Ihor Yankiv, who is the Deputy of Ivano-Franivsk oblast council and the Deputy Head of the party, rounds out the top ten of the list. The latter was also born in Lviv and has even worked atLvivStateUniversityof physical culture. All the subsequent candidates in the list represent either Lviv city or oblast councils: Leonid Martyniuk (oblast council, #11), Ruslan Koshulynskyi (city council, #12), Ihor Kryvetskyi (oblast council, #13), Mykhailo Blavatskyi (oblast council, #17), Oleh Mikhnitskyi (city council, #21), Markian Lopachak (city council, #29), Halyna Chorna (oblast council, #30), Ivan Hnyda (city council, #35), Bohdan Salii (city council, #39), Yaroslav Kachmaryk (oblast council, #42), Yurii Naumko (city council, #44), Bohdan Halaiko (city council, #45). If they get to the Parliament, the city and oblast representative bodies of local governments of Lviv will be significantly emptied.

As it is seen, the top 50 is indeed full of candidates from Lviv region. It is also interesting that the position of a candidate was not dependent on the level of council (whether oblast or city) he represents. Most probably it affirms the existence of a separate "party rating" of the candidates in the All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda. This is why some deputies of oblast council had lower positions than those from the city council. Let's also emphasize the fact that in the given list only one candidate has the experience of deputy work in the main legislative body of the country (Oleh Tiahnybok). All other candidates, in case they win, will receive the mandate of the People's Deputy of Ukraine for the first time.

The Communist Party of Ukraine: 3 out of 225

The Communist Party of Ukraine quite for a long time has not achieved significant results in Lviv oblast. Probably that is the reason why in the lists of this political power there are only three representatives of this region. Moreover, if to take into account the current ratings of this political power, only one candidate possesses a real possibility to receive a seat in Verkhovna Rada.

This candidate is the People's Deputy of Ukraine during four convocations and the first secretary of Lviv oblast committee of the Communist Party of Ukraine - Oleksandr Holub. The party gave him the position #11 init list. Holub, as well as the brand of the party, rarely appears in the public information space of Lviv region and in his activity concentrates more on the state level. Except the instances, when he submits the deputy's requests or appeals concerning the regional problems.

The next candidate in the list of the Communist Party is Elina Drobot - the Head of Lviv oblast komsomol organization, who lives in Lviv. Having the position #37 she is unlikely to win. Another dweller of Lviv oblast - the Secretary of Yavoriv rayon committee of the Communist Party of Ukraine - Mykhailo Pidtserkovnyi is under position #84 inthe list. He is a permanent resident of Novoyavorivsk city.

As we can see, the Communist Party of Ukraine does not put accents on their candidates in the regions, where their party is not supported. Except of this, the negative attitude to the Communist party is the reason why even three candidates from the region, who are present in the list, are not familiar to the vast majority of the voters of Lviv region.

The UDAR party: opportunities for young generation

Vitalii Klychko's party will lead to Verkhovna Rada five natives of Lviv region. However, at the moment, only one of this fivesome can potentially win. Here we talk about the Head of Lviv oblast organization of the UDAR party - Yaroslav Hinka. He got the position #20. Let's mention that this young candidate can become a People's Deputy for the first time.

It is strange how the former party member of PORA, who at the moment, according to lobby interviews, is a gray Your E. of oblast UDAR party organization, Petro Adamek got to the position #49. This Deputy of Lviv city council is well known in the region since the events of 2004. Under the #95 of the list of UDAR is another Lviv resident -the Head of city organization of the party - Yurii Martyniuk. This politician has not reached yet the necessary level of popularity among the voters in Lviv region but being 31 years old he has all chances to do that. Another young activist from Lviv, the Deputy of oblast council from the UDAR party - Ivan Horon is #116 in the list. Finally, the fivesome is rounded out by the Deputy of Lviv city council Anatolii Krachkovskyi (#146).

In general, the list of the UDAR party members form Lviv region is represented by relatively young politicians. The oldest is Petro Adamyk, he is 42. The age of other candidates does not exceed 34 years. At the moment only Yaroslav Hinka is the closest to be selected. However, even a formal participation in the election process will be a good experience for the majority of these candidates, if to take into consideration their young age.

The Union of Patriotic Forces - Our Ukraine: political pensioners

Formerly the most popular political power in Lviv region is now not in its best shape. Practically all team of Our Ukraine in Lviv has severed itself from the party. The current rating of the Former President's party does not allow talking about the access to Verkhovna Rada. On the basis of incomplete list (at the moment it includes only 30 surnames) we see only three candidates from Lviv region.

The former Chairman of the Management Board of National Joint-Stock Company Naftogaz of Ukraine and the native of Lviv oblast Oleksii Ivchenko is the third in the list. In due time, he was also the Head of the Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists. After the Orange Revolution he was not a frequent guest in the region and mainly worked on the national level.

The position #20 is occupied by Ihor Stefanyshyn, who is the Head of the executive committee of Lviv oblast organization of Our Ukraine and the Deputy of oblast council. Also, he manages the election office of the party in Lviv oblast. Bohdan Kozak, who is a brother of a potential majoritarian candidate in the voting district #122 Taras Kozak, is 21st in the list. He is the deputy of Lviv oblast council and the Director General of LLC Trade and Manufacturing Co. "Lvivkholod".

The Ukraine-Ahead! party: political mixture

The political project of Nataliia Korolevska has in its list 6 candidates, who are connected with Lviv oblast and who are going to Verkhovna Rada. It is worth mentioning that similarly to the situation of the previous political power, the party rating of Ukraine-Ahead! at the moment does not allow to talk about the victory of any candidate.

Ostap Stupka, who is the son of the late actor Bohdan Stupka, is the third in the list. Stupka Junior was born in Lviv but his subsequent career was not connected with his hometown. Mostly he works in Kyiv.

Under the #57 is the Deputy of Lviv oblast council of V Convocation from Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc - Roman Kuzmych. During all his life he has changed few parties, starting from the Communist Party of Ukraine. At the moment he is retired.

Vitalii Novosad, who is the Head of youth nongovernmental organization "Asotsiatsia KVN Halychyny" and member of the Civil council at Lviv oblast state administrations, is 69th in the list. The surname of this candidate is little-known to the voter from Lviv region. Another former member of Yulia Tumoshenko Bloc and the Deputy of Lviv city council of the V Convocation Oleksandr Vardzal is 92nd in the list.

Taking into considerations the current ratings, in the possible composition of Verkhovna Rada Lviv oblast will be represented by 21 People's Deputies 

Under the #119 is the Deputy of Rava-Ruska city council - Volodymyr Kozhushko. As it is stated on the web site of the Central Election Commission, Mr Kozhushko represents the People's Movement of Ukraine party in the city council. However, it is possible that things have changed nowadays, because his surname is included in the list of Korolevska. Finally, the former representative of the United Center political party and the citizen of Lviv city - Yaroslav Antoniak is the 126th in the list.

Thus, we see that the list of Ukraine-Ahead! political party (except of Stupka) is represented by the dwellers or natives of Lviv city, who are little-known for the voters. Three of them - Novosad, Antoniak and Kozhushko - were previously discussed as the party candidates in the single member constituencies. None of the Lviv natives, who are in the list, has ever been a people's deputy.

Conclusions

To sum up, it should be said that taking into consideration the current ratings, in the possible composition of Verkhovna Rada, , Lviv oblast will be represented by 21 People's Deputies. Among them 1 will be from the Party of Regions, 1 from the Communist Party, 11 from the United opposition, 7 from All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda, and 1from the UDAR party. These candidates will also include 11 newcomers because the rest has the experience of working as a people's deputy.

The biggest number of Lviv's natives, who has quite real chances to get to the Ukrainian Parliament, was formed by the United opposition. However, if to take into account the whole list of the All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda, then this particular party has in its list the largest amount of candidates from Lviv region. However, its current ratings are not that persuasive and do not allow us to take into account the candidates, who are situated in the list lower than the positions #20-30.

The positions from the given political powers that will pass during the elections were calculated according to the survey data of Razumkov Centre. In particular, according to the given data, as of August 6 the political powers will lead to Verkhovna Rada the following number of deputies from the list: