Primaries - is a truly great instrument which enables different but ideologically close political forces to unite, accumulate resources and win. However, even the finest theories may be impossible to apply, and they may not always give expected results. Like Korean high speed trains are always late on our tracks, the seeds of American primaries haven't yet given anything but weeds on Ukrainian land.
One-man show
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, ex-chairman of SBU (Security Service of Ukraine), which decided to stand as a candidate in the election district #165, became the biggest promoter of primaries in Ternopil oblast. Thanks to the active propaganda of slogan "THE ONLY OPPOSITION CANDIDATE should be chosen by people, not party leaders. Nalyvaichenko"(sic!), poorly informed people thought that only Mr. Nalyvaichenko will participate in primaries. Advertising ploy is simple, yet genius at the same time. However, such ruffian's method used by politician who is going to adopt new laws, makes us think twice. First of all, because all of these wise words, statements and appeals have a major contradiction. If Mr. Nalyvaiko – is the only candidate from opposition (this very idea is implanted by the advertising), if the opposition have already determined such a worthy candidate, what for should be conducted primaries than? While Mr.Nalyvaichenko was actively preparing to primaries in the district, the other opposition candidates have just decided to participate, or started campaigning, or were patiently waiting for the decision of the KOD (Dictatorship Resistance Committee) concerning approval of their candidacies. Thus, the other potential candidates didn't manage to participate in primaries, and Mr. Nalyvaichenko successfully defeated himself. The evidence of this is the election commission meeting minutes: "was registered one participant of primaries".
Mr. Nalyvaichenko successfully defeated himself. The evidence of this is the election commission meeting minutes: "one participant of primaries was registered"
The power of people's committees
These primaries were organized and conducted by Public District election commission, members of which are representatives of NGOs. Majority of them are the same organizations which participated in nomination of Valentyn Nalyvaichenko on public assembly ("viche") in January this year as the only candidate from opposition in a majoritarian district in Ternopil oblast, in particular: Youth Nationalist Congress, Tryzub All-Ukrainian Association, Ukrainian People's Council, and also: National Solidarity trade union, Committee of voters of Ukraine, National committee of the Civic campaign “Youth Guard”, "Prosvita", NGO "Chesno".
It worth mentioning, that the Public District election commission was formed of Public Committee "People's Choice 2012" - the former "Ukrainian choice", which creation was partly initiated by Valentyn Nalyvaiko. They had to change the name because there is another organization "Ukrainian Choice", with the leader Viktor Mervedchuk. "Ukrainian Choice" (of Nalyvaichenko) was also created on the aforementioned public assembly which nominated the former Chairman of SBU.
It was mentioned in the press-release of the Public DEC, that Oleksandr Solontai, a representative of the "People's choice", highly estimated the primaries conducted by the opposition candidate in Ternopil oblast. However, if we look at the plan of opposition primaries, proposed by the Public Committee "People's Choice 2012", we'll see, that requirements to their organization have considerably lowered during the last month. Here are some paragraphs from the document, where required components of Primaries are listed: registration assembly (candidates sign commitment to participate Oppositional primaries); presentation of candidates' commitments; debate assembly (public debates of candidates in the election district center) etc. However, there were no presentations of the other candidates besides Mr. Nalyvaichenko, no income and property declarations or copies of labor records (which are also mentioned in the document) during the conduction of primaries.
Three-percent victory
The aforementioned assembly in January have gathered nearly two thousand of people. I assume, that a number of people which participated in primaries on 24 June was approximately the same. For example, in Kozova city, which has population around nine thousand of people, only 251 people had voted at 15 pm (two hours before the end of voting). In Zborov (population also around 9 thousand), had voted less than 200 people. Besides polling stations in already mentioned cities, two other stations were supposed to be opened in other district centers: Pidhaitsi and Berezhany. Moreover, nearly ten mobile polling stations were supposed to visit 82 villages. Volodymyr Boiko (the deputy head of oblast office of "Fatherland") visited one of them (Ozerna village). He was one of six candidates in the bulletin, but decided only to watch its conduction in one of the biggest villages in Ternopil oblast (3,5 thousand of voters) because of his skepticism. He says, only 18 people voted while the mobile polling station was opened for two hours. The author has to guess or make assumptions about the number of people that participated in voting, because organizers refused to provide any information, and didn't let to observe the process.
Opposition to opposition
In January Nalyvaichenko said: "I'm opened for communication with all opposition politicians which have intention to run in this district. I'm sure that we'll find a common language. We'll conduct primaries which will help to choose an opposition candidate if it's necessary." It seems that they didn't manage to find a common language if the primaries were conducted. However,some potential candidates say there was no negotiations on this issue. What for they organized primaries than, with no prior negotiations as much easier way to choose a candidate from opposition. It seem, that Mr. Nalyvaichenko was ready to negotiations only with those politicians which would agree to choose him as the only candidate from opposition. The major reason for conducting primaries is that they are a great method of campaigning. In fact, it was the key method used by Mr. Nalyvaichenko till now. Although we can often meet the headings like "Nalyvaichenko has won the first Ukrainian primaries" in mass media, the project has only alleged success. Though Valentyn Nalyvaichenko will be more known after this primaries, his reputation will rather suffer than increase. The other politicians in the region ironically perceive similar "victories" of Mr. Nalyvaichenko. According to Anatolii Vykhrushch (the Head of the regional office of People's Movement of Ukraine (Rukh)), who also plans to run in the district #165, the results of primaries, conducted the last week, will not influence his decision to stand as a candidate. The People's Movement of Ukraine (Rukh) plans to conduct sociological poll in the region and, in accordance to it results and the decision of the Dictatorship Resistance Committee, Mr. Vykhrushch will take the final decision.
An own goal
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko affirmed these days that he's staying in United Opposition, because he was one of the founders of the Dictatorship Resistance Committee (KOD). Thus, it's quite strange that he decided to participate in primaries without prior discussion with representatives of the KOD on this topic. On the other hand, most representatives of the United Opposition are convinced that only local opposition candidates should be nominated in majoritarian districts. Therefore, they will probably advise Mr. Nalyvaichenko to stand as a candidate in Zaporizhia oblast, and his organization of primaries may be regarded as a desperate attempt to get the district. However, this untimely victory of Valentyn Nalyvaichenko will doubtfully consolidate his authority inside the United Opposition, and will surely not make that unity stronger. Nalyvaichenko's campaign ploy is not quite correct towards the other candidates, and is a manipulation from the voters' perspective. Smartly, deftly, skillfully – if Mr. Nalyvaichenko was standing for a position in SBU (Security Service of Ukraine), we could support him without thinking twice – supposedly, there are no "bad techniques" in the work of Special services, only effective or ineffective. The effectiveness in politics in undoubtedly important, but should it be reached at any price? Especially since the "first Ukrainian primaries" dishonored the idea of primaries. Fortunately, local politicians are still positive about primaries, at least they say so. With this in mind, it seems that Mr. Nalyvaichenko may suffer major losses. People in the region were quite positive about his person – without obvious negativity if not the sympathy, they could have made made the choice in favor of his candidacy on the real elections. And now – both supporters and the indifferent – have a reason to doubt.
Nevertheless, all opponents from opposition have small chances to win him in one on one fight. Mr. Nalyvaichenko was, and perhaps will remain, the strongest (in terms of recognizability, taken positions and absence of negative past) candidate among all opposition candidates in the region. Thanks to the last steps taken by Mr. Nalyvaichenko, there are real chances that his desire to become "the only opposition candidate" will come true (although primaries had left most voters indifferent to his person, but it had mobilized his opponents).