In a previous review, OPORA wrote that the beginning of January stayed in the memory due to the fact of  providing Ukraine with a Patriot air defense squadron and a little more than 400 units of various armored vehicles. The trend also remained relevant in the past week (January 9–15). In particular, Poland was the first among the allies to announce that they would transfer 14 modern Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine. Now, the permission for their supply shall come from Germany as a manufacturer country.

The transfer of tanks was also announced by the United Kingdom. London will provide Ukraine with 12 Challenger-2 vehicles of their own production. This number of tanks will not change the situation on the battlefield but it will create a precedent for Ukraine to receive heavy armored vehicles.

The chain reaction has already begun – the readiness to provide Ukraine with Leopard-2 is discussed in Germany and Finland, Spain, Sweden and a number of other countries may follow the cause. All this suggests that the Western allies once again moved their red lines on the issue of military assistance.

We hope that the next “weapon taboo” to be lifted will be the American F-16 or the European Eurofighter Typhoon.

Last week, a new head of the so-called “special operation” was appointed in the rf. It is valeriy gerasimov who replaced sergei surovikin in this role. Such rotations may be related to an internal conflict among the military leaders in the kremlin: shoigu with gerasimov against prigozhin and kadirov.

Intelligence service reports that russia may announce a new wave of mobilization to recruit another 500,000 soldiers who will take part in the battles in the east and south of Ukraine.

Also, russia continues their missile terrorism, striking at the infrastructure of Ukraine. On January, 14, russians fired 38 missiles. One of them got into a high-rise building in the city of Dnipro, where it completely destroyed the building's entire section. As of January, 16, it is known that 40 people were killed and another 75 were injured. Meanwhile, Ukraine announced the submission to vote in the UN General Assembly of a resolution on the establishment of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression committed by the russian federation.

The foreign policy front in the russian federation is not that quiet, either. Armenia gets disillusioned about russia as an ally who failed to guarantee their security and refused to hold joint CSTO military exercises in 2023 on their territory.

In russia, the relations with Kazakhstan have cracked. The kremlin did not like the “yurts of invincibility” set up in several cities of Ukraine. Moscow asked Astana to explain their involvement in this initiative but the authorities of Kazakhstan said that this was a private initiative of the diaspora, which they believe is nothing wrong.

russia continues to kill peaceful Ukrainian people and unsuccessfully tries to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure

Russian troops continue to cynically exterminate the civilian population of Ukraine. As a result of the constant shelling last week, the heart of a three-year-old boy in Ochakiv and a six-year-old girl in Avdiivka could not stand it any longer. On January, 14, russian terrorists carried out the twelfth massive attack at civilian targets. Ukrainian air defense forces took down 25 of the 38 missiles but several strickes led to tragic consequences:

  • A russian X-22 missile hit a high-rise building in Dnipro, killing 36 people (as of January, 16). 75 residents from the house were injured. Such missiles are designed to destroy aircraft carrier groups at sea, and the warhead in each such missile weighs 950 kg. Commander of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have the firepower capable of shooting down this type of missile.
  • A russian missile in Kryvyi Rih destroyed residential buildings and killed one person, as reported by the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration, Valentyn Reznichenko.
  •  According to Deputy Head of the Presidential Office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, on January, 14, russia killed five civilians in Donetsk region.
  • As a result of the missile attack, energy facilities of Kharkiv, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia, and Kyiv regions were affected. Emergency blackouts were introduced in most regions. Chairman of the Board of Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi,  said that “the controllability and integrity of the power system is preserved but the deficit in the system is major.” DTEK also said that russia attacked two thermal power plants, one of which stopped producing electricity. The director general of the "Yasno" electricity supplier, Serhiy Kovalenko, explained that the shortage of generation in the power system after the attack is huge: “It is too early to predict the timing of recovery. It is not clear yet how long the repairs will last. The problem is so severe that Ukrenergo has significantly limited the volume of consumption throughout Ukraine, and in Kyiv in particular. The colleagues are keeping the situation under control and looking for a solution to stabilize it. ”
  • The missile attack had a direct impact on Moldova, for the third time now. There, the wreckage of the russian missile fell down. President Maia Sandu condemned the russian attacks and said the missile wreckage was found near the village of Larga, in the north of the country.
  • Also, on the morning of January, 14, terrorists from the north attacked Kyiv with missiles along a ballistic trajectory, and damaged 28 residential buildings. According to Air Force spokesman, Yurii Ignat, experts will study the type of missiles the enemy that were used on Saturday. “But it is obvious that these were either ballistic missiles or S-300 anti-aircraft missiles flying along a ballistic trajectory. The S-300 missiles come in various modifications, so a certain modification may allow them to be used from the territory of russia, ” he  said.

"Today's missile strikes on Ukrainian cities present another proof that russia is a terrorist state and has no place in the civilized world," Shmyhal  said.

At the same time, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on the task of “a missile strike on the military command system of Ukraine and related energy facilities.” And maria zakharova tried to distract the public from the tragedy in Dnipro city, and published in the Telegram the footage of the torture of the russian military, allegedly by “Ukrainian Nazis”. She called on Ukraine to comply with the Geneva Convention, and expressed hope that the soldiers would be returned from captivity as soon as possible. However, the next exchange of prisoners scheduled for January, 14, was canceled by russia.    

“How’s it to be next to a butcher in the Chamber? Do you feel warm & sticky blood when you shake his hand? Next time you shake his hand, think about civilians killed by russian missiles in Dnipro! Think about it when the butchers speak of russian church that blessed russian army,” – said the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN, Serhiy Kyslytsa, to the members of the UN Security Council.

The day after the meeting of the UN Security Council, where Ukraine called for the creation of a Special Tribunal, russia launched missile strikes, which confirmed their terrorist nature.

“We will focus our diplomatic effort this year on two major resolutions. Step number one in February is the Formula for Peace. And the second step will be russia's responsibility, ”First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Emine Dzhaparova, said.

At the meeting of the Security Council, Emine Dzhaparova emphasized that in Ukraine the rule of law is always consistent with other concepts, such as responsibility and accountability.

“In my country, it is clear where black and white is, and who is responsible for the tough time we live in, and which country is responsible for the crimes we see, and that it must be held accountable,” she  said.

“If a country abusing the rights and privileges of a permanent member of the Security Council attacks another UN member state, this means one thing only – security is destroyed, international peace is questioned, the rule of law is brutally violated,”  Dzhaparova added.

Particularly bloody is the response of russia's permanent representative to the UN, vasily nebenzia, who said: “We are not fighting against the Ukrainian people. We are fighting against the criminal nationalist regime which came to power in 2014, after an anti-constitutional coup.”

As to the war, according to nebenzia, the terrorists will end it when Ukraine ceases to pose a threat to russia and to discriminate against russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens. To do this, they are ready for negotiations. Otherwise, they will solve problems with arms.

Poland and the United Kingdom Announce the Transfer of Modern Tanks to Ukraine. Will Germany and Finland Follow?

In early December, in an interview with the British edition of The Economict, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhny, said: “I know that I can defeat this enemy. But I need resources to fight. I need 300 tanks, 600 to 700 armored infantry vehicles, 500 howitzers. Then, I think, it is absolutely feasible to get to the line of February, 23 ".

The Western Allies heard the Ukrainian General. In early January, the United States, France, and Germany announced that they would transfer more than 400 units of armored vehicles to Ukraine. Last week, it is the turn of the state-of-the-art combat tanks.

On January, 11, a summit of the Lublin Triangle countries was held in Lviv, with the presidents of Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland. During a press conference following the summit, Andrzej Duda said that Poland, as part of the potential formation of an international coalition, decided to transfer 14 Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine.

“As part of the coalition, a company of Leopard tanks will be transferred. But for this, it is necessary to fulfill a whole range of formal requirements, approvals, and so on. However, we primarily want it to be an international coalition, ” Duda said.

“We will strive for this coalition to be formed by several countries who will provide more tanks,”  the Polish president's office quoted him as saying.

The formal requirements mentioned by Duda are about the final decision on the supply of Leopard tanks from Poland which should be made by Germany as a manufacturing country, granting permission for re-export.

The US publication of Politico reports that France and Poland are putting pressure on Germany, and this idea is also supported by German Vice-Chancellor, Robert Habeck. In a comment to Welt, he said: Germany should not prevent other countries from transferring Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine, even if it does not do it itself.

What would you say - it's the baseline. Another baseline is that Poland is transferring tanks to Ukraine not for the first time. Earlier, Ukraine received 240 Soviet-made T-72 tanks. Since the USSR no longer exists, it was not necessary to coordinate this military assistance with anyone.

However, the good news for Ukraine is not finished. On January, 14, British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, confirmed in a telephone conversation with President Volodymyr Zelensky that his country would provide Ukraine with 12 Challenger-2 tanks.

On the other hand, the US Bloomberg, according to Deutsche Welle, and referring to their sources, reported that the decision to transfer Leopard tanks to Berlin will be announced before the next meeting in the Ramstein format, on January, 20. According to them, Germany will probably decide to provide Ukraine with its tanks, taking into account the calls of the allies.

According to OPORA, this decision will be a good example for other countries that have Leopard tanks active in service, for example, Spain, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, which have not yet announced the provision of heavy weapons to Ukraine.

Perhaps, after the transfer of Abrams tanks to Kyiv, the United States supporting the “tank” initiative of European countries, will agree. Another country that could potentially supply tanks is France. They have already handed over AMX-10 RC wheeled tanks to Ukraine, but it also has its own Leclerc tanks, which will not go amiss on the battlefield in Ukraine.

The assumption was confirmed in Helsinki. The Finnish authorities will be ready to transfer Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine if the decision to start such a practice is made at the pan-European level. This was mentioned in an interview with the Finnish TV channel, MTV Uutisille, as reported by Deutsche Welle, by the head of the national defense Committee, Antti Hakkinen.Of course, our contribution will be small because our own defense always has the priority for us as a country bordering russia , ” Hakkinen said.At the same time, he emphasized that many European countries have more opportunities to supply armored vehicles than Finland.

russia Replaces the Head of the So-Called “Special Operation” and May Be Preparing for a New Wave of Mobilization

On January, 11, the commander of the joint group of russian troops in Ukraine, sergei surovikin, was demoted to the deputy commander, and removed from office. In his place, valeriy gerasimov was appointed the chief of the General Staff of the russian federation.

In the Ministry of Defense of the russian federation, such rotations were called “increasing the level of leadership of the special operation”, which “is associated with the expansion of the scale of the tasks being addressed, the need to organize closer interaction between the military branches and combatant arms, as well as improving the quality of all types of support.”

Prior to this, another important rotation took place in the russian federation – the post of chief of staff of the ground forces in the armed forces of the russian federation was given to aleksandr lapin, who had previously been removed from the post of commander of the “center” group of the occupiers' forces.

Such kremlin rotations are unlikely to change russia's plans, but they may also be indicative of certain internal political processes. Thus, valeriy gerasimov and aleksandr lapin were criticized by ramzan kadyrov and the Wagner fighters. On the contrary, sergei surovikin enjoyed their support. In other words, it is the continuation of a long-standing conflict among the military leaders of the kremlin: shoigu with gerasimov against prigozhin and kadirov.

Commenting on the personnel changes in russia, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, expressed an interesting opinion: “putin was afraid of the power that prigozhin and kadirov began to gain, so the decision was made to remove those people from all channels and rely on the russian army only.”

The US Institute for the Study of War has a similar position: “gerasimov, who approved the catastrophic plan for russia's war in February 2022, is now unlikely to begin to resist putin.” What exactly is going to change in the kremlin strategy, will be seen later. And now, according to British intelligence, “the situation that russia faces is becoming more serious, and the military campaign does not go in line with the kremlin's strategic goals. The appointment of the Chief of the General Staff of the russian federation as the commander of the theater of military operations in Ukraine indicates to this. ”

In addition, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, the kremlin is trying to increase the personnel of the armed forces to 2 million people. Thus, the intelligence does not exclude that in the coming days russia's leaders will announce the next wave of mobilization: “Another 500,000 russians will get to the russian army, which will allow the terrorist country to create strategic reserve. Preparations for the announcement of the next wave of mobilization in russia are already actively underway. ” The Chief Reconnaissance Department also declared their readiness for the long war and the transfer of russia to martial law.

This week, russian Defense Minister, sergei shoigu, also emphasized that the kremlin “will continue to develop the nuclear triad and maintain their combat readiness, since the nuclear shield has been and is the main guarantor of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our state.” In addition, in the near future, russia plans to “expand the arsenal of state-of-the-art strike capabilities.”

Ukrainian Defense Minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, said that "in spring, russia may try to gather "forces, ammunition and weapons" for an offensive from the areas it has already occupied in the south and east."

According to the minister, moving from the north will take a lot of time, and russia does not have the resources to do this. The Commander of the Joint Forces, the Pentagon, and British intelligence have also reported that no attack from belarus should be expected so far. Although russia maintains a significant number of troops in belarus, they are unlikely to constitute a real offensive force, and the new deployment of russian aircraft is not a preparation for any additional offensive operations against Ukraine. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine expects that “in the near future, russian troops will try to seize the entire territory of the Donetsk region, and then try to occupy part of the Zaporizhzhia region.”

As we can see, the enemy does not abandon the aggressive intentions of the occupation of Ukraine and the destruction of its statehood. This is well understood by us and our allies, who are rethinking the strategy of helping our state. So, the next two or three months, as stated by Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, “will be critical – and they will be almost decisive in this battle, for which we are preparing and our aggressor enemy is preparing, too.”

russia Is Nervous About the Potential Loss of Allies

After the outbreak of a full-scale war, russia reorients its external relations with countries that adhere to neutrality or directly supported the intervention in Ukraine.

russian Foreign Minister, sergei lavrov, has repeatedly stated: “We will focus on those who have never let us down.” In particular, he often mentions the CSTO, which “in present conditions should strengthen solidarity before the attack on the world order enshrined in the UN Charter”.

And yet russia's ties with their allies are cracking. Armenia refuses to conduct joint military exercise of the CSTO in 2023. “The Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia informed the CSTO Joint Staff, in writing, that we do not consider it expedient to conduct such military exercises on the territory of the Republic of Armenia in this situation,” said Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan.

The aggravation of relations between russia and Armenia comes from the inaction of russian peacekeepers regarding the blockade of the Lachin corridor by Azerbaijan. At the same time, russia accused Armenia of disrupting peace talks with Azerbaijan.

“It was the Armenian leaders who canceled the visit of Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan at the last moment. This prevented discussing not only the peace treaty, but also other pressing issues of Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization, including the situation around the Lachin corridor, ” said maria zakharova, spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of russia.

Nikol Pashinyan drew attention to the possible negative consequences of the russian military presence: “In the face of russia's silence, an interesting situation develops: russia's military presence in Armenia not only does not guarantee the security of the latter, but on the contrary, it will create threats to the republic.”

However, russia cannot be responsible for serious challenges and always speaks from a position of strength. Maria  said that “russia has been ensuring the security of russia for decades, and the opportunists who show the door to our servicemen obviously do not realize the real consequences of such a step.”

In addition, russia went into hysterics learning about the establishment of “yurts of invincibility” by Kazakhstanis. Thus, thanks to the help of Kazakh patrons, yurts were installed in Bucha and Kyiv; and they generally plan to set up six such sites.

russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not wait for the planned briefing of zakharova and rushed to reassure its citizens that the authorities of Kazakhstan have nothing to do with this, but asked Astana to give an official response: “The russian side has no reason not to trust its close partners. At the same time, an official comment from our friends is highly desirable, which would put an end to these speculation. ”

At the same time, russia panicked about another ally – Serbia. On January, 12, during a visit to Belgrade, U.S. State Department adviser, Derek Scholle, called on Serbia to join Western sanctions against russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

“russia is waging a brutal unjustified war against Ukraine every day. We must stand together to ensure that such behaviour is unacceptable,” he said.

The statements of the American diplomat received the response from the Deputy of the state duma of russia, leonid slutsky. He did not deny the unacceptability of russia's actions, but resented the severance of ties between russia and Serbia.

“The United States continue their impudent blackmail of Serbia to break friendly ties with russia. Yielding to such appeals means taking a step toward the loss of sovereignty and, in effect, joining a large American colony in Europe . ”

Such statements by russia indicate that they are very much afraid to remain without provisionally loyal states (because russia actually has only one ally, belarus) and find themselves in complete international isolation, both in the west and in the east. Such imperial geopolitical ambitions may not last – it is difficult to live when today you are a serious player on the world political arena who seeks to challenge the United States, and tomorrow you get rejected even by those countries that have traditionally been part of your sphere of interests.