Russia simplifies procedures for obtaining Russian passports in the occupied territories of Ukraine and destroys ties due to the legal rupture of the so-called Ukrainian orthodox church of the moscow patriarchate and the russian orthodox church. Instead, the Ukrainian state must give the correct signals to the people in the occupation. In particular, that collaborators, who commit crimes, will be punished, but there is no question of collective responsibility for all those who live in the temporarily occupied territories and are victims of aggression by the russian federation. Ukrainian experts said this on May 30 during an online discussion "putin openly threatens the prolonged occupation of new territories of Ukraine. How to counteract the aggressor and support the residents of temporarily occupied territories" on the weekly air of OPORA "Occupied".
OPORA's senior analyst Oleksandr Kliuzhev says a key event of the last week for the temporarily occupied territories was a decree by the self-proclaimed russian president on a simplified procedure for granting russian citizenship to residents of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and the so-called "L\DPR". "In fact, the citizens of Ukraine living in these territories can apply for russian citizenship without renouncing Ukrainian citizenship, without applying to the competent authorities of Ukraine. In the case of territories controlled by the illegal formations of "DPR" and "LPR", there is no longer the requirement to obtain a so-called local "passport" by citizens of Ukraine before submitting an application for a Russian passport. Previously, there was a different procedure, if it can be called so, that citizens first had to get these papers issued by the illegal occupation administrations in Donetsk and Luhansk. In fact, we see that a certain chaotic period in the management of the occupied territories by russia is passing," Oleksandr Kliuzhev. In his opinion, despite russia not getting what it wanted from the beginning, it's moving towards some system solutions for the occupation of our territories. The traditional russian trick of issuing IDs to the population shows they're moving to a new occupation stage.
OPORA's analyst Oleksandr Neberykut also shared his opinion that such actions are a certain reaction and russia's exit from the chaotic development of events. He thinks this decision of russia is transitional. As events unfold, such decisions may apply to other regions. After all, several districts in Kharkiv and Mykolaiv oblasts are also under temporary occupation. "Obviously, this decision now applies to Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, which is a certain indicator of the consolidation level of occupation administrations in these territories. Because there must be certain management processes and logistics in terms of "voluntary" issuance of these papers - passports of citizens of the russian federation. Obviously, the process has already started. Representatives of the "occupation headquarters" have already reported that issuing passports has begun. Therefore, obviously, there'll be the usual scenario of forced passportization, where the target audience will be people who can't refuse - state employees and so on, who've already received various payments in rubles. That's why this scenario will work now," Neberykut said. The analyst believes that in the long run, obviously, this will somehow correlate with the "pseudo-referendum". The reference to "its citizens" will make it possible to legitimize returning of these territories, if at some point russia will not be able to hold them by force. In addition, the expectation may also be that forced citizens of the russian federation will become conscripts. Therefore, we can expect a certain mobilization campaign. This is an additional instrument of growing repression.
The experts also discussed the decision of the Ukrainian orthodox church of the moscow patriarchate to separate from the russian orthodox church in the context of the temporarily occupied territories, although not canonically but legally.
According to Oleksandr Kliuzhev, after this decision, the Simferopol and Crimean eparchies of the Ukrainian orthodox church of the moscow patriarchate issued a statement that they did not support, did not vote for, and did not recognize the statutory decisions of the Ukrainian orthodox church of the moscow patriarchate. At the same time, the Donetsk and Mariupol eparchies acted more wisely and in a less separatist way, stating that such a decision did not apply to the Ukrainian orthodox church of the moscow patriarchate so that nothing would change in their lives. He notes that despite the occupation, these eparchies are still part of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, which has been recognized by all parties, including the Russian Orthodox Church, for all these eight years. "This is an example of how putin is destroying everything within the cultural space, in this case religious, which is connected with Moscow and in this case with the Russian Orthodox Church. That is, they destroyed this last institution, which kept some common space with russia," Kliuzhev.
According to the analyst Oleksandr Neberykut, in the public sphere among these people, there are the calls to preserve this union and to see this decision as temporary. "This is a serious blow to a certain narrative. These ties, which were broken in other areas - economic and other - still existed on this religious ground. Now, these bridges have been completely destroyed, and it is unclear how to react in this stalemate. In particular, to representatives of occupation or public circles. What is instinctively working for them now is a call for a solution. I think this will lead to some official decisions and comments," Oleksandr Neberykut said.
Experts also discussed fresh symbols of this war, in particular, the copying of statements about the need to issue additional stamps, leaflets, and stamps. "This shows a certain flaw. You must have your own symbols, you must promote them, you can't come up with anything, so you have to copy not the symbols themselves, but their positioning and, artificially create that natural excitement that was in Ukraine," Oleksandr Kliuzhev. According to him, even the aggressor needs some legend for his aggression. However, it does not exist, as does the ideology and vision of the future. Therefore, they have to copy and imitate. A much more serious thing is the intensification of Nazism manifestations in the occupied territories when they actually speak about the need to destroy everything Ukrainian. Such statements sound in both the previously and newly occupied territories.
The so-called symbolic politics is one of the management tracks, Oleksandr Neberykut says. From the so-called "denazification" of Ukraine, russia represented by collaborators and occupation administrations, moved to nationalization - renaming the streets, fighting with books, etc. In this regard, it is much worse than just a return to Soviet symbols. After all, the russian federation itself is being Nazified, and this policy is reflected in the places where military expansion is currently taking place on Ukrainian territory. "There is something not only Ukraine must be aware of in terms of threat to our territories, but the whole world, which is so afraid to offend the feelings of russia, which will soon stop caring about anyone's feelings, whether offending or not," Oleksandr Neberykut.
Kliuzhev also mentions other trends in the occupied territories, such as the "yunarmiya" movement, where children are drawn into a politicized paramilitary movement that is very similar to the Nazi movement. Also, the topic of Ukrainian prisoners remains the focus of russian propagandists. He notes that the practice of mass visits of representatives of russian regions to the occupied territories continues. russian officials claim patronage over occupied Ukrainian regions. putin's party even held a forum on the integration of the occupied territories.
According to Neberykut, it seems from the statements of Russian curators that the model for the "development" of the newly occupied territories is not some successful Russian regions, but the uncontrolled portions of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (ORDLO). Therefore, in his opinion, there is nothing optimistic here for these regions. But, in his opinion, the competition for the so-called "best scenario of occupation" of Ukrainian territories continues. It is still in the process of development.
Tamila Tasheva, Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, spoke about the trends she observed in Crimea since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. "What do we see? It's a military base, and it can only be seen this way. We've been talking about it for eight years. It's really a military base, and it's a springboard for attack. It's not a place to live and carry out any tourist activities, shop windows, which putin spoke about. What we saw on February 24 was that one of the attacks took place, in fact, from the territory of the South of our state through the territory of Crimea. Now it's a base for the treatment of the injured as all civilian infrastructure is used for military purposes to serve the military capabilities of the aggressor country," Tamila Tasheva said. In particular, she mentions the use of kindergartens and schools by the military and the work of hospitals to treat the wounded.
Tamila Tasheva notes that the occupation administrations did not expect there could still be any protest potential in Crimea. For the past eight years, this has been a rather specific resistance movement directly related to the politically motivated persecution of Crimean Tatars. Now, these are anti-war protests and administrative arrests for the so-called "discrediting of russian military" by people who did not have any activist background, and the basis is no longer Crimean Tatars. "We first saw a direct action a few weeks ago - there were no such actions before. When activist Bohdan Ziza covered the occupation administration of the city of Yevpatoria with yellow and blue paint, he even threw the incendiary mixture into the building. We talked to his friends and sister, and we tried to support this family and gather attention to this case. He faces very long imprisonment. And in fact, he reacted to injustice as a result of the war, to the atrocities he saw in the Kyiv oblast. That's what we ourselves, working on the topic of Crimea for eight years, didn't expect from the people who began to protest. They're reacting to the war waged by the russian federation, they are responding to atrocities, and they are taking a completely pro-Ukrainian stance. Not with a human rights position, as most Crimean Tatars have been for the most part for eight years. Everyone understood that they were a priori pro-Ukrainian, but this was not articulated. And here is a big difference," Tamila Tasheva said.
Another important trend, according to the expert, is that the resources of the occupation administration are actively used for propaganda purposes in the newly occupied territories. In particular, as a tool to justify themselves for failures in the previously occupied territories. She also notes that the situation with the level of propaganda in kindergartens and schools, persecution of teachers, and sending people to war remain rampageous. "Out of the conscripts who were sent to the war and the burials that took place, we think that 45 people are citizens of Ukraine. In total, 95 funerals have already taken place on the territory of the Crimean Peninsula, i.e., people who are natives of the Crimea or were sent to war from the territory of the Crimean Peninsula," Tamila Tasheva said.
According to Tasheva, a framework document on the strategy of de-occupation and reintegration of Crimea was approved last year. The key position there was that Ukraine would return the territory of the Crimean Peninsula through political and diplomatic means. After a new phase - a full-scale invasion - we can talk about reconsidering certain positions in this strategy. According to her, all options are being considered. In particular, it will depend on the position of the Armed Forces when we return to the position as of February 23. "There can be no compromise on our territorial integrity, including Donbas and Crimea, and there never will be. The end of the war will be the return of control over our territories and the flag over Ukrainian Sevastopol. All other things, it seems to me, may not be fully communicated and may not always be clear to society. This is because there are certain security factors, certain negotiating moments, communication with our international partners, etc.," Tasheva said.
According to her, it is very important that we as a state do not do worse the situation for the people living in the occupied territories at the moment and give them the right signals, including about collaboration activities. "If people in the occupied territories and in the newly occupied territories did not commit war crimes, did not violate human rights, did not commit crimes of genocide and crimes against humanity, did not carry out propaganda specifically and knowingly, then they should not be responsible for the fact that they live in the occupied territories or carry out some economic activity," Tamila Tasheva said. If we send the right signals to our people in the occupied territories, which we consider victims, they will not then oppose the Ukrainian army, which in any case will be the first to enter the territory of the peninsula. "I'm not saying that we should not prosecute collaborators - we definitely do. That is, there are categories of citizens who have carried out collaborative activities, and they will definitely be responsible for it," Tamila Tasheva said.
Tasheva mentions it should also be understood that collaborators from the newly occupied territories in the process of de-occupation of these territories will flee to the territory of Crimea. In addition, since 2014, about 500,000 Russian citizens have entered the territory of Crimea illegally (i.e. not through checkpoints on the mainland of Ukraine or without a request for a permanent residence permit in our territory). According to her, the process of modern colonization of Ukraine was taking place. After de-occupation, the state of Ukraine will be able to deport these people absolutely legally. But there are still many controversial questions that need to be answered. For example, during this time, people married with "mixed citizenship". Or the issue of not criminal liability, but a certain lustration and inability to hold some positions for people who are still partially involved in certain advocacy activities in education and so on. "We must understand that there should be no collective responsibility for everyone who lives in the temporarily occupied territory. This is key. We perceive them, all people who lived there at the time of 2014 or were born after the occupation, as our citizens. Yes, they have committed crimes, if these are the most serious crimes, such as aiding, collaboration, and so on, they will be held accountable. All other citizens shouldn't be responsible for the fact that they became victims of the aggression of russia," Tamila Tasheva said.
The expert also added that the forced sending of Crimean doctors under the guise of voluntary assistance to Mariupol is, in fact, a covert mobilization for war. This is the use of civilians for military purposes, which is a war crime. The situation with health care in Crimea is also extremely bad. There are problems with the epidemic of tuberculosis and AIDS, with drug addicts due to the abolition of substitution therapy, and the lack of medical specialists caused by the destruction of the health care system.
Tamila Tasheva believes that the situation in 2014 and the situation in 2022 are radically different because now we have a capable army: "If in 2014 there would be a situation like now, when the inhabitants Kherson, Mykolaiv, and other strong citizens went out disarmed actually against tanks. Why did they go there? Because they knew that they had an already politically formed government with a strong leader behind them, and above all, it is a powerful army that could defend. This was not the case in Crimea in 2014, and it was not in the Donbas - we understand that. This was a completely destroyed army, with a lack of military, technical and human potential, when there were no commands on what to do. Accordingly, in 2014, neither the Crimean Tatars nor the Ukrainians understood whether they would attack and whether anyone would stand behind them and help them or whether they will be supported. So now, I think, no key mistakes have been made because we are defending ourselves, we are defending our territorial integrity. We have a very strong army, very strong citizens, a well-formed civil society, a volunteer movement, and so on."
According to Tasheva, it is important not to send false signals to our citizens that "we will punish everyone and everyone is guilty." Since during the first five years since the occupation started, we have seen a completely discriminatory policy towards internally displaced people. "Therefore, proper communication with our people is very important here. Do not slander people, do not say that they are all traitors, scoundrels, and so on. We must consider most of them are victims of this occupation," Tamila Tasheva said.
Kliuzhev shared his opinion that in the process of capturing the territories, the occupation administration decided to nationalize the infrastructure. This is the image of this occupation - the way these people think. They can destroy and take away, but they can't build: "They didn't build even a doghouse, but they head the so-called republics."
Neberykut believes it may be more correct to talk not about occupation or seizure of territories but about theft. Starting with the theft of territory as such, if we go down to the level of the smallest clerk in this so-called occupation establishment, what are they for? If you ask anyone, they are for the distribution of these benefits, which appeared out of nowhere. For example, they looted Ukrainian supermarkets and then announced the opening of a wide range of supermarkets from the russian federation (but in reality from earlier occupied Crimea): "I formulate it for myself as a kleptocratic occupation regime, which manifests itself. This is its essence."
He also believes that denazification and demilitarization will take place in all de-occupied territories. Because what russia is doing there now is pure-water Nazism. The statement of the occupation administrations about the desire to deploy russian military bases in Kherson, Zaporizhia, and other regions where there was no militarization before is an indicator of how the plan of russian occupation of Ukraine changed.