This week the topic of food security dominated not only in the Ukrainian-russian discourse but also in the global information space. OPORA analysts and an invited expert also spoke about this on May 27 during an online discussion on Friday's "War Speeches".
"Against the background of the brutal war taking place, direct military confrontation, we're still talking about a hybrid war all this time. It lasted all these eight years, and maybe even longer if you look at how russia behaved toward Ukraine," OPORA's analyst Oleksandr Neberykut says. In his opinion, food security has so far been a somewhat underestimated aspect of russia's hybrid war against Ukraine.
OPORA's analyst Anatolii Bondarchuk spoke about the key topics about this war that have been voiced by the Russian side this week. russia wants to lift sanctions in exchange for unblocking Ukrainian ports. In addition, russia is trying to communicate as publicly as possible the theses that would absolve them of direct responsibility for the possible food crisis in the world. "russia says that they do not actually block Ukrainian ports, that Ukrainian ports are blocked by Ukraine itself because Ukraine does not release its ships from Ukrainian ports, that Ukraine has mined these ports, and thus, in fact, Ukraine is responsible for everything especially the global food crisis in the world. Although we understand that if, for example, ships from Ukraine pass through the Black Sea, there is a great threat they will explode on russian mines, or be fired upon or captured by russian warships," Anatolii Bondarchuk said. In addition, he mentioned the regularly appearing information about the seizure and export of Ukrainian grain by russia from the occupied South of Ukraine and attempts to sell it to other countries. Despite all the evidence, russia continues refuting these actions.
The analyst noted the world community has also been actively discussing this issue. In particular, the point that russia uses the situation with Ukrainian ports as a weapon and a blackmailing element for the world was voiced in Davos and at a meeting of the UN Security Council. The unblocking of Ukrainian ports has also been actively discussed and debated in the world. In particular, Lithuania proposed to create a military coalition of different countries to accompany ships that will export Ukrainian grain.
russia's also trying to promote the thesis that Ukraine will be forced to give up its territories in order to reach a compromise and peace in the war. The Ukrainian side rejects this idea and insists that negotiations may begin after the territories return to the state on the 23th of February. Traditionally, this week, russia threatened Western arms supplies to Ukraine and warned against providing Ukraine with high-precision weapons for long-range use that could harm russian territory.
Oleg Nivievskyi, a professor at the Kyiv School of Economics and coordinator of the UaFoodTrade research project, notes that the importance of agriculture in Ukraine's economy is quite large. If we take all the sectors that serve the agro-industrial complex, it is 20-22% of Ukraine's GDP, i.e. 1/5 of the economy. The impact of agriculture on trade is even bigger. More than 40% of Ukraine's export revenue is generated by the agro-industrial complex. In addition, in the structure of our exports and production, which are quite monolithic, cereals, oilseeds and oil dominate. Together, these positions in the structure of exports account for about 30% of total exports. Cereals separately take 20%. According to the expert, the producers still produce as much as we need for several years. After all, we have export-oriented production. The forecast for grain production this season is 50-60 million tons. Last year there were 85 million tons. That is a drop of only 30%.
"What could be the problem? It could be a very serious blow to the commercial part of the sector - those who work directly on the market: large, medium, and small enterprises. Because if there are no exports, the country will collect a lot of extra products. It will put pressure on the price. The price we have is already lower than in the pre-war period. This is paradoxical, as world prices have almost doubled. It would seem that we should also have high prices, but the reason is that we have so much production. Logistics has become very expensive. And accordingly, our producers receive a lower price than they received before the war. This means that they will simply go bankrupt under the worst conditions if this continues. This can be a serious blow to the commercial sector and, consequently, to production. But again, this is not critical for us in terms of ensuring domestic food security," Oleg Nivievskyi said.
According to the expert, there has been no strategy for the development of the agro-industrial complex since 2015, so now our agricultural production portfolio is quite scarce - grain and oilseeds. Manufacturers reacted to the market by producing what is most profitable. But, on the other hand, there has always been a discussion about diversifying production - more processing, vegetables, fruits, and berries. On a lower level, there was such a process. For example, raspberries and apples were successfully planted for export in villages.
"The land reform is a very cool tool for launching a market so that farmers can invest not only in grain but also in livestock, vegetables, and horticulture," Nivievskyi said. Of course, the expert notes, the market stopped. The market itself has actually existed since July last year. But before the war, the speed of transactions increased, loans and land collateral were launched, the value of land increased - everything began to be good, as modeled. Land reform, together with decentralization and banking reform, was key for Ukraine, which allowed us to be so successful in the fight against russia.
"The global food crisis is actually very serious right now. russia knows what it's pushing on. For the third or fourth year, world grain stocks are quite low. Apart from China, we are now entering the year of the smallest world stocks of grain in the last 15 years", the expert says. russia is a "gopnik on the world's grain market," but it raised risks, destabilized the supply of the key grain supplier in the world, and created turbulence in the market. That is why famine knocks at the door in the countries where we were exporting grain. "Easing sanctions will only increase the factor of this risk. Because russia will think that it can always blackmail the world with food. This risk will remain, and we will not improve food security in the world in this way," Oleg Nivievskyi said.
The expert considers Ukraine and russia serious competitors in the market. Ukraine is one of the few countries in the world that can increase agricultural production by about half since a third of the world's chernozems are in Ukraine. There are no such reserves in russia.
According to OPORA's analyst Oleksandr Neberykut, this threat of the global food crisis allows us to redefine or rather expand the international coalition in support of Ukraine. After all, we have a new argument against russian aggression, which isn't only about Ukraine. The countries to which we export the most grain are Afghanistan, Yemen, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Tunisia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Libya, Turkey. E.g. this is the Middle East, Africa, and partly Asia. But, according to him, almost all of them abstained during the vote on the Resolution of the UN General Assembly on the exclusion of Russia from the UN Human Rights Council. And, for example, Ethiopia voted against it. "These countries are facing the famine threat. I think this is an opportunity. If these countries depend on our grain, but when assessing the situation, they say they don't know if there were human rights violations by russia, then obviously we must work with it," Neberykut notes.
In addition, he mentions that the key thing behind russia's rhetoric is its denial of Ukraine's subjectivity, starting from their war speeches. Instead, the global food crisis is now showing everyone that Ukraine is of global importance.
"The war in Ukraine is not just about Ukraine and russia. It is about Ukraine, which is of global importance as a country that supplies food. Ukraine is truly one of the guarantors of food security in the world," Oleksandr Neberykut said. In his opinion, in the context of the negotiation process, one of Ukraine's responsibilities for world food security may be that Ukraine should receive military security. Therefore, we have something to work with in terms of using this topic against russia.